Rams @ Giants: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New York Giants

Weather at kickoff43°F8 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

8-7 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

New York Giants

5-10 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

LAR -6

✓ NYG W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 51 pts

Model before kickoff

LAR 26–20 NYG

✓ LAR (71%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -6

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseLAR -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close43.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseLAR -6

Total43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 6-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: LAR won 26–25; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 51 points went over 43.5, as in 2 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 13.6 against an average line of 6.3; 42 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ NYJ 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6	30–9	W	U42
Very close	CLE @ NYJ 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	16–23	L	U45
Very close	PHI @ NYJ 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	33–18	W	O43.5
Very close	SF @ JAX 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-7	30–10	W	U45.5
Very close	CLE @ HOU 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	27–14	W	U46
Very close	GB @ CHI 2021 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	24–14	W	U44
Very close	JAX @ HOU 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-4.5	31–3	W	U43.5
Very close	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Very close	IND @ HOU 2021 · Week 13 · very close · similar team ratings & total	-7.5	31–0	W	U45
Very close	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-7	38–31	P	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WWWWW	6-4	60%	2-2	5-2
NYG WWWLW	6-3-1	67%	3-0-1	6-3-1

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; NYG home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR OOOUO	5-5	50%	8-7
NYG OUOUO	4-6	40%	5-10

Went over in Q4. Of 38 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 13% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NYG	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAR 8–7 NYG LAR leads · 15 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+7.8 →+1.2▼ 6.6#10

NYG−9.1 →−5.2▲ 3.9#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LAR

Longer bar = better

NYG

Offense

◀ LAR better

#31

#18

Defense

◀ LAR better

#26

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

NYG better ▶

+0.5 #8

65 plays #11

Pace

◀ LAR faster

62 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #9	24.7 #27	LAR
Yards / play	5.62 #6	5.66 #27	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #9	0.00 #22	LAR
Success rate	44% #10	45% #29	LAR

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	NYG off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	14.3 #31	22.1 #19	LAR
Yards / play	4.28 #31	5.30 #19	LAR
EPA / play	−0.20 #31	−0.01 #21	LAR
Success rate	37% #31	42% #13	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.7 #12	7.5 #12	12.1 #11	4.7 #12	6.5 #14	11.3 #16
NYG allowed	5.7 #28	7.6 #22	13.3 #26	5.7 #27	5.5 #10	11.3 #20

NYG scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	1.5 #32	3.8 #32	5.3 #32	4.4 #18	4.6 #25	9.0 #24
LAR allowed	4.4 #19	6.3 #10	10.7 #15	3.3 #7	7.7 #29	11.1 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.