Packers @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2023)

Sun, Dec 31, 2023, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Green Bay Packers

7-8 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

7-8 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

GB -1

✓ GB W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

GB 25–24 MIN

✓ GB (53%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -1

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseGB -1

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close42.5

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseGB -1

Total42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 1-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: GB won 33–10; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 55%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 41%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.9 against an average line of 1.3; 43.9 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CAR @ WSH 2020 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1	20–13	W	U42
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	30–26	W	O43
Very close	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Very close	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Very close	NE @ MIA 2020 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1	12–22	L	U40.5
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	NYJ @ SEA 2022 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-2	6–23	L	U43
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2021 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-1	22–24	L	O44
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2022 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	30–31	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB WWLLL	5-6	45%	2-4	1-3
MIN WLPPL	6-2-2	75%	2-2	4-1-1

Venue/role: GB away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB OOOOO	6-5	55%	7-8
MIN UUUOO	4-6	40%	7-8

Went over in Q4. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 17% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIN	6-4 60%	6-2-2 75%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

GB 31–24 MIN (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2023	Minnesota Vikings 24 @ Green Bay Packers 10	Pick’em	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+5.2 →−1.1▼ 6.3#20

MIN−0.3 →+0.6▲ 0.9#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

MIN

#11

Offense

Even

#14

#25

Defense

MIN better ▶

#11

0.0 #16

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.6 #29

61 plays #25

Pace

MIN faster ▶

63 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.2 #13	19.9 #9	Even
Yards / play	5.41 #12	4.98 #7	MIN
EPA / play	+0.04 #8	−0.05 #12	Even
Success rate	43% #12	42% #14	Even

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	20.9 #21	22.1 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.54 #9	5.50 #25	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #14	+0.03 #27	MIN
Success rate	43% #13	45% #30	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	4.5 #15	4.7 #30	9.3 #25	6.7 #1	6.2 #16	12.9 #5
MIN allowed	3.1 #4	5.3 #5	8.3 #3	5.5 #26	5.9 #14	11.4 #22

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.7 #27	7.5 #10	10.2 #19	6.2 #5	4.5 #29	10.7 #17
GB allowed	4.1 #16	6.5 #13	10.7 #15	5.7 #27	5.7 #12	11.4 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.