Lions @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2023)

Sun, Dec 24, 2023, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

10-4 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Minnesota Vikings

7-7 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

DET -2.5

✓ DET W

Total

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 MIN

✓ DET (60%) won

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

Open—

no open

CloseDET -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Close48

Closing line · Caesars Sportsbook

SourceCaesars Sportsbook closing line

Opennot available

CloseDET -2.5

Total48

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 30–24; the favorite covered, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 48, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.4 against an average line of 2.7; 56 points a game (usually 45.6). Of the 1 over, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Very close	LAR @ MIN 2021 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	30–23	W	O48.5
Very close	LAC @ PHI 2021 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	27–24	W	O49.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2020 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	26–7	W	U47
Very close	LAC @ LV 2021 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	32–35	L	O49.5
Very close	LAR @ ARI 2020 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	38–28	W	O48.5
Very close	DAL @ MIN 2022 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	40–3	W	U48.5
Very close	GB @ MIN 2021 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	31–34	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC @ DEN 2021 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	13–28	L	U47.5
Very close	KC @ LAC 2021 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	34–28	W	O50

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2020 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLWLW	5-4	56%	3-2	5-3
MIN WWLPP	6-1-2	86%	2-1	4-0-1

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOUO	6-3	67%	10-4
MIN OUUUO	3-6	33%	7-7

Went over in Q4. Of 22 earlier overs in games with totals 45–51, 18% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	7-3 70%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
MIN	6-4 60%	6-1-2 86%	3-6 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 18–36 MIN MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.7 →+2.9▲ 1.2#7

MIN−0.3 →+0.7▲ 1.0#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

DET

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ DET better

#15

#20

Defense

MIN better ▶

#10

−0.4 #21

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.4 #25

67 plays #2

Pace

◀ DET faster

64 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #5	19.2 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.89 #3	4.98 #10	DET
EPA / play	+0.06 #6	−0.07 #9	Even
Success rate	46% #6	42% #13	DET

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #21	23.6 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #11	5.26 #19	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #15	−0.03 #18	Even
Success rate	43% #12	43% #18	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	6.3 #5	9.2 #5	15.5 #4	3.8 #21	8.0 #5	11.8 #10
MIN allowed	2.8 #3	4.9 #6	7.7 #2	5.5 #25	5.8 #15	11.3 #22

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	2.4 #29	7.6 #10	9.9 #22	6.1 #6	4.6 #26	10.8 #18
DET allowed	4.6 #20	5.6 #9	10.1 #10	6.7 #31	6.4 #20	13.1 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.