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NFL · 2023

NFL Week 16 games

FinalCurrentUpcomingWeek 16: 1st-half lines & halftime results ›Spread edge and Total edge = our projection vs the market ⓘ · Trend = this season’s results
16 finalFavorites 6-9 ATS5 upsetsO/U 11-5Model Favorite 11-5Week in numbers ›

Week in numbers

Tap a number to filter the games below
Games1616 final · 0 to play
Favorites ATS6-940% covered
Upsets5outright
Over / Under11-569% over
Model Favorite11-569% won
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Thursday, Dec 21

1
Final · Non-conf
New Orleans Saints
7-7 · #11
22
Los Angeles Rams
7-7 · #9
30
Spread
LAR -4
✓ LAR W ATS
Total
45.5
▲ Over 52 · Q4
Projected
23–26
✓ LAR won
Trend: LAR ATS ✓ Model: NO by 2.5 ✗ Model: Over 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1

Saturday, Dec 23

2
Final · Division
Cincinnati Bengals
8-6 · #17
11
Pittsburgh Steelers
7-7 · #19
34
Spread
CIN -3
✓ PIT W ATS
Total
39
▲ Over 45 · Q3
Projected
24–21
✗ CIN lost
Trend: CIN ATS ✗ Model: PIT by 1 ✓ Model: Over 6 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Buffalo Bills
8-6 · #4
24
Los Angeles Chargers
5-9 · #22
22
Spread
BUF -13
✓ LAC W ATS
Total
44
▲ Over 46 · Q4
Projected
33–20
✓ BUF won
Trend: BUF ATS ✗Trend: Under ✗ Model: LAC by 6.5 ✓ Model: Over 9 ✓ Cover settled: Q1

Sunday, Dec 24

10
Final · Non-conf
Indianapolis Colts
8-6 · #21
10
Atlanta Falcons
6-8 · #24
29
Spread
ATL -2.5
✓ ATL W ATS
Total
44
▼ Under 39
Projected
24–26
✓ ATL won
Trend: IND ATS ✗ Model: IND by 3 ✗ Model: Over 5.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
Seattle Seahawks
7-7 · #20
20
Tennessee Titans
5-9 · #27
17
Spread
SEA -3
Push
Total
42.5
▼ Under 37
Projected
24–21
✓ SEA won
Model: TEN by 0.5 Model: Over 3 ✗
Final · Division
Detroit Lions
10-4 · #6
30
Minnesota Vikings
7-7 · #15
24
Spread
DET -2.5
✓ DET W ATS
Total
48
▲ Over 54 · Q4
Projected
27–24
✓ DET won
Trend: MIN ATS ✗ Model: DET by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 3.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Washington Commanders
4-10 · #32
28
New York Jets
5-9 · #26
30
Spread
NYJ -3
✓ WSH W ATS
Total
36
▲ Over 58 · Q3
Projected
21–24
✓ NYJ won
Trend: WSH ATS ✓ Model: WSH by 0 ✓ Model: Over 8.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Green Bay Packers
6-8 · #10
33
Carolina Panthers
2-12 · #31
30
Spread
GB -3.5
✓ CAR W ATS
Total
39.5
▲ Over 63 · Q4
Projected
24–20
✓ GB won
Model: GB by 1.5 ✗ Model: Over 4 ✓ Cover settled: Q4
Final · Non-conf
Cleveland Browns
9-5 · #8
36
Houston Texans
8-6 · #13
22
Spread
CLE -3
✓ CLE W ATS
Total
40
▲ Over 58 · Q4
Projected
24–21
✓ CLE won
Trend: HOU ATS ✗ Model: CLE by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 4.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Jacksonville Jaguars
8-6 · #12
12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-7 · #14
30
Spread
JAX -1.5
✓ TB W ATS
Total
43
▼ Under 42
Projected
23–22
✗ JAX lost
Trend: JAX ATS ✗Trend: Under ✓ Model: TB by 1 ✓ Model: Over 2.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Arizona Cardinals
3-11 · #28
16
Chicago Bears
5-9 · #18
27
Spread
CHI -4.5
✓ CHI W ATS
Total
42
▲ Over 43 · Q4
Projected
21–25
✓ CHI won
Trend: Under ✗ Model: ARI by 0.5 ✗ Model: Over 4 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Non-conf
Dallas Cowboys
10-4 · #3
20
Miami Dolphins
10-4 · #7
22
Spread
MIA -1.5
✓ MIA W ATS
Total
48.5
▼ Under 42
Projected
26–28
✓ MIA won
Model: DAL by 1 ✗ Model: Over 5.5 ✗ Cover settled: Q2
Final · Non-conf
New England Patriots
3-11 · #29
26
Denver Broncos
7-7 · #25
23
Spread
DEN -7
✓ NE W ATS
Total
37.5
▲ Over 49 · Q4
Projected
19–26
✗ DEN lost
Trend: DEN ATS ✗ Model: NE by 4 ✓ Model: Over 7 ✓ Cover settled: Q2

Monday, Dec 25

3
Final · Division
Las Vegas Raiders
6-8 · #23
20
Kansas City Chiefs
9-5 · #5
14
Spread
KC -11
✓ LV W ATS
Total
40.5
▼ Under 34
Projected
15–26
✗ KC lost
Trend: Under ✓ Model: LV by 1 ✓ Model: Over 1 ✗ Cover settled: Q1
Final · Division
New York Giants
5-9 · #30
25
Philadelphia Eagles
10-4 · #16
33
Spread
PHI -14
✓ NYG W ATS
Total
41
▲ Over 58 · Q4
Projected
17–31
✓ PHI won
Model: NYG by 1.5 ✓ Model: Over 6.5 ✓ Cover settled: Q3
Final · Non-conf
Baltimore Ravens
11-3 · #2
33
San Francisco 49ers
11-3 · #1
19
Spread
SF -6.5
✓ BAL W ATS
Total
47
▲ Over 52 · Q4
Projected
22–28
✗ SF lost
Trend: BAL ATS ✓ Model: BAL by 2 ✓ Model: Over 3 ✓ Cover settled: Q1
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Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.
Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total