Does the side the model likes against the spread cover?
NFL games from 2023 to 2026, graded against the closing line. Pick a question, narrow it with the filters, and read the hit rate against break-even.
Model side covered
49.4%
of the model’s spread picks covered
Within the margin of error of break-even ⓘ35%break-even 52.4%70%
422–433–11 record (pushes last)
866 games
46–53% 95% range
855 decided games · 2023–2026 · every game with a signal
By season
Is it the same every year?
| Season | Games | Record | Hit rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 | 211 | 111–93–7 | 54.4% |
| 2024 | 282 | 141–141 | 50.0% |
| 2025 | 280 | 128–152 | 45.7% |
| 2026 so far | 93 | 42–47–4 | 47.2% |
By spread edge size
Bands of edge, and how it did at that size and up
| Edge size | Games | Record | Hit rate | And up |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5–1.5 | 380 | 191–183–6 | 51.1% | 49.3% 804 |
| 2–3.5 | 269 | 136–131–2 | 50.9% | 47.7% 430 |
| 4–5.5 | 116 | 49–67 | 42.2% | 42.3% 163 |
| 6+ | 48 | 20–27–1 | 42.6% | 42.6% 47 |
866 games
Newest first · showing 50. Tap a game for its card.
| Game | Closing | Spread edge | Result | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|
2026 · Week 7 CHI -3 · 50.5 · final 24–30 |
CHI -3 · 50.5 | NE +3 underdog · edge 5.5 | L | 24–30 |
2026 · Week 6 SF -7.5 · 51.5 · final 17–23 |
SF -7.5 · 51.5 | SF -7.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 17–23 |
2026 · Week 6 DAL -1.5 · 54.5 · final 13–23 |
DAL -1.5 · 54.5 | GB +1.5 underdog · edge 5 | W | 13–23 |
2026 · Week 6 KC -7.5 · 41.5 · final 6–22 |
KC -7.5 · 41.5 | KC -7.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | W | 6–22 |
2026 · Week 6 BUF -5.5 · 54.5 · final 33–30 |
BUF -5.5 · 54.5 | BUF -5.5 favorite · edge 2 | L | 33–30 |
2026 · Week 6 LAR -13.5 · 51.5 · final 18–16 |
LAR -13.5 · 51.5 | ARI +13.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 18–16 |
2026 · Week 6 CHI -1.5 · 50.5 · final 31–23 |
CHI -1.5 · 50.5 | ATL +1.5 underdog · edge 2 | L | 31–23 |
2026 · Week 6 BAL -3 · 40.5 · final 10–13 |
BAL -3 · 40.5 | CLE +3 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 10–13 |
2026 · Week 6 IND -6.5 · 43.5 · final 26–20 |
IND -6.5 · 43.5 | IND -6.5 favorite · edge 1 | L | 26–20 |
2026 · Week 6 NE -7.5 · 42.5 · final 19–26 |
NE -7.5 · 42.5 | NE -7.5 favorite · edge 3 | L | 19–26 |
2026 · Week 6 NO -1.5 · 46.5 · final 34–27 |
NO -1.5 · 46.5 | NYG +1.5 underdog · edge 4 | L | 34–27 |
2026 · Week 6 CAR -3 · 39.5 · final 25–14 |
CAR -3 · 39.5 | CAR -3 favorite · edge 1.5 | W | 25–14 |
2026 · Week 6 PIT -2.5 · 37.5 · final 26–19 |
PIT -2.5 · 37.5 | TB +2.5 underdog · edge 5 | L | 26–19 |
2026 · Week 6 JAX -2.5 · 42.5 · final 34–31 |
JAX -2.5 · 42.5 | HOU +2.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 6 SEA -3 · 40.5 · final 14–17 |
SEA -3 · 40.5 | DEN +3 underdog · edge 1.5 | W | 14–17 |
2026 · Week 5 LAR -3.5 · 55.5 · final 37–34 |
LAR -3.5 · 55.5 | BUF +3.5 underdog · edge 2 | W | 37–34 |
2026 · Week 5 ATL -3 · 44.5 · final 30–23 |
ATL -3 · 44.5 | ATL -3 favorite · edge 1 | L | 30–23 |
2026 · Week 5 SEA -3 · 46.5 · final 32–29 |
SEA -3 · 46.5 | SF +3 underdog · edge 3 | W | 32–29 |
2026 · Week 5 DEN -3 · 42.5 · final 23–17 |
DEN -3 · 42.5 | LAC +3 underdog · edge 2 | L | 23–17 |
2026 · Week 5 CHI -1.5 · 46.5 · final 7–31 |
CHI -1.5 · 46.5 | CHI -1.5 favorite · edge 1 | L | 7–31 |
2026 · Week 5 HOU -6.5 · 37.5 · final 26–3 |
HOU -6.5 · 37.5 | TEN +6.5 underdog · edge 1 | L | 26–3 |
2026 · Week 5 CIN -7.5 · 45.5 · final 31–24 |
CIN -7.5 · 45.5 | MIA +7.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 31–24 |
2026 · Week 5 NE -8.5 · 51.5 · final 17–45 |
NE -8.5 · 51.5 | LV +8.5 underdog · edge 4 | L | 17–45 |
2026 · Week 5 MIN -2.5 · 41.5 · final 23–13 |
MIN -2.5 · 41.5 | MIN -2.5 favorite · edge 0 | W | 23–13 |
2026 · Week 5 NYJ -2.5 · 38.5 · final 12–17 |
NYJ -2.5 · 38.5 | CLE +2.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | L | 12–17 |
2026 · Week 5 PIT -3 · 42.5 · final 22–34 |
PIT -3 · 42.5 | IND +3 underdog · edge 1.5 | L | 22–34 |
2026 · Week 5 WSH -3.5 · 41.5 · final 27–27 |
WSH -3.5 · 41.5 | NYG +3.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 27–27 |
2026 · Week 5 JAX -7.5 · 41.5 · final 17–19 |
JAX -7.5 · 41.5 | PHI +7.5 underdog · edge 3.5 | W | 17–19 |
2026 · Week 5 DAL -8.5 · 49.5 · final 24–16 |
DAL -8.5 · 49.5 | TB +8.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 24–16 |
2026 · Week 4 NO -1.5 · 48.5 · final 45–24 |
NO -1.5 · 48.5 | NO -1.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 45–24 |
2026 · Week 4 DET -3.5 · 52.5 · final 26–32 |
DET -3.5 · 52.5 | CAR +3.5 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 26–32 |
2026 · Week 4 KC -3.5 · 47.5 · final 30–27 |
KC -3.5 · 47.5 | KC -3.5 favorite · edge 1.5 | L | 30–27 |
2026 · Week 4 SF -3 · 48.5 · final 14–24 |
SF -3 · 48.5 | SF -3 favorite · edge 2.5 | W | 14–24 |
2026 · Week 4 SEA -7 · 43.5 · final 23–30 |
SEA -7 · 43.5 | SEA -7 favorite · edge 1 | P | 23–30 |
2026 · Week 4 MIN -10 · 38.5 · final 10–15 |
MIN -10 · 38.5 | MIA +10 underdog · edge 2.5 | W | 10–15 |
2026 · Week 4 BUF -7 · 49.5 · final 29–26 |
BUF -7 · 49.5 | NE +7 underdog · edge 3 | W | 29–26 |
2026 · Week 4 CHI -3.5 · 43.5 · final 12–23 |
CHI -3.5 · 43.5 | NYJ +3.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | L | 12–23 |
2026 · Week 4 CIN -2.5 · 51.5 · final 22–17 |
CIN -2.5 · 51.5 | JAX +2.5 underdog · edge 3 | W | 22–17 |
2026 · Week 4 ARI -2.5 · 43.5 · final 24–36 |
ARI -2.5 · 43.5 | NYG +2.5 underdog · edge 4 | W | 24–36 |
2026 · Week 4 LAR -4.5 · 42.5 · final 24–20 |
LAR -4.5 · 42.5 | PHI +4.5 underdog · edge 0.5 | W | 24–20 |
2026 · Week 4 GB -2.5 · 38.5 · final 17–14 |
GB -2.5 · 38.5 | GB -2.5 favorite · edge 2.5 | W | 17–14 |
2026 · Week 4 BAL -11.5 · 41.5 · final 18–24 |
BAL -11.5 · 41.5 | BAL -11.5 favorite · edge 0 | L | 18–24 |
2026 · Week 4 HOU -3 · 48.5 · final 34–30 |
HOU -3 · 48.5 | DAL +3 underdog · edge 1 | W | 34–30 |
2026 · Week 4 IND -4.5 · 46.5 · final 30–13 |
IND -4.5 · 46.5 | IND -4.5 favorite · edge 0.5 | W | 30–13 |
2026 · Week 4 PIT -2.5 · 38.5 · final 24–27 |
PIT -2.5 · 38.5 | CLE +2.5 underdog · edge 1.5 | W | 24–27 |
2026 · Week 3 PHI -3 · 42.5 · final 7–27 |
PHI -3 · 42.5 | PHI -3 favorite · edge 0.5 | L | 7–27 |
2026 · Week 3 DEN -1.5 · 44.5 · final 26–30 |
DEN -1.5 · 44.5 | LAR +1.5 underdog · edge 3.5 | L | 26–30 |
2026 · Week 3 BAL -3 · 54.5 · final 34–31 |
BAL -3 · 54.5 | BAL -3 favorite · edge 0 | P | 34–31 |
2026 · Week 3 NO -3.5 · 44.5 · final 35–27 |
NO -3.5 · 44.5 | LV +3.5 underdog · edge 1.5 | W | 35–27 |
2026 · Week 3 SF -7.5 · 48.5 · final 30–36 |
SF -7.5 · 48.5 | SF -7.5 favorite · edge 2 | L | 30–36 |
NE
CHI
WSH
SF
DAL
GB
LAC
KC
BUF
LV
ARI
LAR
ATL
BAL
CLE
TEN
IND
NYJ
NO
NYG
CAR
PHI
PIT
TB
HOU
JAX
SEA
DEN
CIN
MIA
MIN
DETSpread edge is the model’s line minus the closing spread, in points; the side is the team the model likes against the number (a Favorite or an Underdog). Every number uses what was known before kickoff: the closing line, the model’s projection made before the game, and the season trend as of that game. The model is the rating model; these records come from the same numbers as the game cards, so they can differ from the Deep dive backtests, a separate run since 2016. Pushes are counted in the games but not in the hit rate. Break-even is 52.4% at -110; the 95% range shows how much a hit rate could move with this many games. History, not a prediction: a hit rate above break-even in the past is not a promise.