Patriots @ Bills: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

Weather at kickoff67°F10 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

Buffalo Bills

3-0 · Power #9

final

Closing spread

BUF -7

✓ NE W

Total

49.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 19–26 BUF

✗ BUF (73%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -3

4 → BUF

CloseBUF -7

4 pts toward Buffalo Bills

Total

Open49.5

no move

Close49.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -3 · closed BUF -7 · moved 4 toward BUFmodel BUF -4

model BUF -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 75%, covered 51% (111 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 57% (56 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBUF -3

CloseBUF -7

Total49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 7-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 29–26 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 49.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.7 against an average line of 6.9; 53.5 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Close	BUF vs LAC 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-7	24–16	W	U50.5
Close	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Loose	BUF vs DET 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & season form	-5.5	41–31	W	O54.5
Loose	WSH vs CHI 2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & total	-5.5	24–25	L	O48.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	LAR vs TB 2025 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Loose	SEA vs ARI 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-7.5	44–22	W	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE PWL	1-1-1	50%	0-1-1	0-1-1
BUF WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UUU	0-3	0%	1-2
BUF OOU	2-1	67%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 138 earlier overs in games with totals 46.5–52.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%
BUF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NE 40–16 BUF NE leads · 56 games since 1999 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 14 2025	Buffalo Bills 35 @ New England Patriots 31	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 5 2025	New England Patriots 23 @ Buffalo Bills 20	BUF -7.5	NE W
Jan 5 2024	Buffalo Bills 16 @ New England Patriots 23	BUF -3.5	NE W
Dec 22 2024	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 24	BUF -14.5	NE W
Dec 31 2023	New England Patriots 21 @ Buffalo Bills 27	BUF -15.5	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+1.4▼ 0.4#9

BUF+2.1 →+3.0▲ 0.9#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

BUF

#26

Offense

BUF better ▶

Defense

◀ NE better

#22

−1.7 #30

Turnovers

BUF better ▶

−0.7 #25

60 plays #18

Pace

Even

61 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #31	26.0 #22	BUF
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.45 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #29	+0.07 #24	BUF
Success rate	40% #27	47% #24	Even

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	33.7 #1	17.0 #6	BUF
Yards / play	6.55 #3	4.77 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.22 #2	−0.04 #11	BUF
Success rate	50% #6	43% #13	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.3 #22	4.3 #24	6.7 #27	2.0 #28	3.3 #28	5.3 #32
BUF allowed	5.7 #21	8.0 #21	13.7 #25	3.3 #8	9.0 #25	12.3 #19

BUF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.7 #7	14.7 #1	20.3 #2	3.3 #18	10.0 #4	13.3 #10
NE allowed	0.0 #1	5.7 #11	5.7 #3	5.7 #20	5.7 #11	11.3 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.