Jets @ Bears: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Chicago Bears

Weather at kickoff70°F7 mphgusts 15DryWeather watch ›

New York Jets

1-2 · Power #27

final

Final

Chicago Bears

2-1 · Power #4

▲ winner

Closing spread

CHI -3.5

✓ CHI W

Total

43.5

▼ Under · 35 pts

Model before kickoff

NYJ 20–23 CHI

✓ CHI (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -8.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCHI -8.5

5 → NYJ

CloseCHI -3.5

5 pts toward New York Jets

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CHI -8.5 · closed CHI -3.5 · moved 5 toward NYJmodel CHI -3

model CHI -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (223 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 33% (48 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCHI -8.5

CloseCHI -3.5

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3.5-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CHI won 23–12; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 35 points stayed under 43.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 4; 44.4 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	WSH vs LV 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	41–24	W	O44.5
Loose	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Loose	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Loose	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & total	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Loose	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Loose	BAL vs SEA 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	37–3	W	U44
Loose	BAL vs KC 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	10–17	L	U44
Loose	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	17–9	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WWP	2-0-1	100%	1-0-1	2-0-1
CHI WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UUO	1-2	33%	1-2
CHI OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 9. 51% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%
CHI	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NYJ 2–6 CHI CHI leads · 8 games since 2000 · CHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−1.9▲ 1.4#28

CHI+0.4 →+3.0▲ 2.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

NYJ

Longer bar = better

CHI

#16

Offense

CHI better ▶

#12

Defense

Even

#13

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

CHI better ▶

+1.0 #8

65 plays #9

Pace

CHI faster ▶

70 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #17	17.7 #7	CHI
Yards / play	5.04 #21	6.08 #28	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.04 #10	Even
Success rate	44% #14	41% #7	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	29.7 #6	20.3 #11	CHI
Yards / play	5.86 #8	4.75 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.13 #8	−0.03 #12	Even
Success rate	45% #13	47% #22	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.3 #22	5.7 #18	8.0 #25	6.7 #10	6.7 #16	13.3 #10
CHI allowed	3.3 #12	9.0 #28	12.3 #20	2.3 #5	3.0 #4	5.3 #3

CHI scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	8.0 #2	6.7 #14	14.7 #7	8.0 #7	7.0 #14	15.0 #7
NYJ allowed	1.0 #4	5.7 #11	6.7 #5	2.3 #5	10.3 #28	12.7 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.