Colts @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2024)

Sun, Nov 3, 2024, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

4-4 · Power #21

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

5-2 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -5.5

✓ MIN W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 34 pts

Model before kickoff

IND 21–27 MIN

✓ MIN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -7

CloseMIN -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -7

1.5 → IND

CloseMIN -5.5

1.5 pts toward Indianapolis Colts

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -7 · closed MIN -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward INDmodel MIN -4.5

model MIN -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 45% (51 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIN -7

CloseMIN -5.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 5.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: MIN won 21–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 34 points stayed under 46.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.4 against an average line of 5; 46.6 points a game (usually 45.4). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Very close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Close	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Close	TB vs DEN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	7–26	L	U40.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form & situation	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWWW	7-1	88%	3-1	5-0
MIN WWWLL	5-2	71%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OOUUU	3-5	38%	4-4
MIN UOUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 50% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

IND 6–2 MIN IND leads · 8 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND−0.6 →−0.5▲ 0.1#18

MIN−0.1 →+2.0▲ 2.1#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

IND

Longer bar = better

MIN

#21

Offense

MIN better ▶

#11

#14

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.1 #14

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+0.7 #6

59 plays #26

Pace

◀ IND faster

57 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	IND off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.9 #18	19.6 #9	MIN
Yards / play	5.51 #15	5.22 #9	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	−0.12 #3	MIN
Success rate	38% #31	39% #5	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	26.9 #6	21.5 #12	MIN
Yards / play	5.73 #11	5.59 #20	MIN
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	44% #13	41% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	5.6 #3	2.4 #32	8.0 #28	3.3 #25	10.6 #1	13.9 #6
MIN allowed	1.4 #2	7.0 #20	8.4 #5	3.9 #8	7.3 #23	11.1 #17

MIN scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	10.3 #1	5.4 #25	15.7 #5	5.4 #12	5.7 #19	11.1 #17
IND allowed	4.1 #14	5.3 #7	9.4 #9	4.1 #10	8.0 #25	12.1 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.