Texans @ Packers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Green Bay Packers

Weather at kickoff71°F12 mphgusts 23DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

5-1 · Power #11

final

Final

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #5

▲ winner

Closing spread

GB -3.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 46 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 21–25 GB

✓ GB (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenGB -3.5

no move

CloseGB -3.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

no move

Close47.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened GB -3.5 · unchangedmodel GB -3

model GB -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 56% (96 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenGB -3.5

CloseGB -3.5

Total47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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games

This game: GB won 24–22; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.6 against an average line of 3.6; 46.6 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar team ratings & total	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & total	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–27	L	O47
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Loose	TB vs LAR 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	27–30	L	O48
Loose	ARI vs IND 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-3	16–22	L	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-2	—
GB WWLWW	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUUUO	2-4	33%	5-1
GB UOOUO	4-2	67%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 8 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%
GB	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 1–5 GB GB leads · 6 games since 2004 · GB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.9▲ 1.8#8

GB+0.5 →+2.9▲ 2.4#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

HOU

Longer bar = better

#16

Offense

GB better ▶

Defense

◀ HOU better

#16

0.0 #17

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+1.5 #1

66 plays #2

Pace

◀ HOU faster

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	23.8 #14	20.2 #9	GB
Yards / play	5.67 #11	5.42 #16	HOU
EPA / play	0.00 #14	−0.09 #10	Even
Success rate	40% #24	47% #27	Even

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #8	22.5 #16	GB
Yards / play	6.23 #4	4.76 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #8	−0.09 #9	Even
Success rate	42% #15	39% #4	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	7.3 #4	5.3 #23	12.7 #13	4.3 #20	6.8 #11	11.2 #16
GB allowed	3.5 #6	9.0 #25	12.5 #19	4.5 #13	3.2 #3	7.7 #7

GB scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	7.8 #3	7.2 #15	15.0 #8	6.3 #6	5.7 #20	12.0 #11
HOU allowed	6.2 #26	2.8 #3	9.0 #8	6.8 #30	6.7 #19	13.5 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.