Patriots vs Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 7 · Neutral site

Weather at kickoff63°F20 mphgusts 37Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-5 · Power #30

final

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

1-5 · Power #29

▲ winner

Closing spread

JAX -6.5

✓ JAX W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 16–22 JAX

✓ JAX (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenJAX -4.5

CloseJAX -6.5

Total41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
NE WLLLL	2-4	33%	—	2-4
JAX LLWLL	2-4	33%	0-1	0-3

Venue/role: NE neutral, as underdog; JAX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
JAX UOUOO	3-3	50%	1-5

Went over in Q4. Of 74 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	6-4 60%
JAX	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 9–3 JAX NE leads · 12 games since 2003 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−4.7▼ 2.9#31

JAX+0.2 →−3.1▼ 3.3#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

Longer bar = better

JAX

#30

Offense

JAX better ▶

#20

#22

Defense

◀ NE better

#29

−0.2 #20

Turnovers

◀ NE better

−0.7 #26

60 plays #23

Pace

◀ NE faster

58 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	13.8 #31	29.7 #31	Even
Yards / play	4.32 #31	6.03 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.20 #30	+0.19 #32	Even
Success rate	39% #28	45% #23	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #23	23.8 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #15	5.65 #23	JAX
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.05 #24	JAX
Success rate	40% #22	44% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.3 #29	4.8 #26	7.2 #30	3.3 #25	3.3 #28	6.7 #31
JAX allowed	5.7 #23	10.2 #29	15.8 #29	3.3 #6	10.5 #31	13.8 #28

JAX scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	3.3 #24	5.3 #22	8.7 #24	5.8 #10	4.3 #23	10.2 #20
NE allowed	6.2 #25	5.2 #11	11.3 #14	6.7 #27	5.3 #16	12.0 #19

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.