Texans @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff51°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Houston Texans

4-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

1-4 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

✓ HOU W

Total

39.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 24–18 NE

✓ HOU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -7.5

1 → NE

CloseHOU -6.5

1 pt toward New England Patriots

Total

Open38.5

▲ 1

Close39.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -7.5 · closed HOU -6.5 · moved 1 toward NEmodel HOU -5

model HOU -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Crossed 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -7.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 6.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 41–21; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 6.1; 41.4 points a game (usually 45.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	LAR @ NYG 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-6	26–25	L	O43.5
Loose	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Loose	SEA @ HOU 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	33–13	W	O41.5
Loose	GB @ CHI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6	24–14	W	U44
Loose	MIN @ CHI 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	29–13	W	U42.5
Loose	SEA @ LAR 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-7	27–23	L	O41
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5	10–27	L	U43
Loose	DAL @ NYG 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & situation	-5.5	20–15	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLLW	1-4	20%	0-2	1-4
NE WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1
NE UOUOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Went over in Q3. Of 61 earlier overs in games with totals 36.5–42.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%
NE	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 4–12 NE NE leads · 16 games since 2003 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+0.1 →+1.3▲ 1.2#9

NE−1.8 →−4.1▼ 2.3#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HOU

Longer bar = better

#18

Offense

◀ HOU better

#29

#10

Defense

◀ HOU better

#19

−0.6 #27

Turnovers

NE better ▶

+0.4 #11

67 plays #1

Pace

◀ HOU faster

59 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	20.4 #19	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	5.62 #12	5.60 #24	HOU
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.04 #22	Even
Success rate	40% #22	45% #22	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	NE off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	12.4 #31	22.8 #18	HOU
Yards / play	4.25 #31	4.79 #4	HOU
EPA / play	−0.17 #28	−0.05 #12	HOU
Success rate	40% #25	39% #7	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	6.0 #8	6.4 #16	12.4 #13	2.6 #29	5.4 #19	8.0 #27
NE allowed	4.6 #17	6.2 #15	10.8 #15	5.4 #20	3.6 #3	9.0 #12

NE scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.8 #25	4.4 #27	7.2 #28	2.6 #29	2.6 #30	5.2 #32
HOU allowed	7.4 #29	2.0 #1	9.4 #12	6.8 #29	6.6 #21	13.4 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.