Buccaneers @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2024)

Sun, Oct 13, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 6 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-3 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

TB -3.5

✓ TB W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 78 pts

Model before kickoff

TB 24–20 NO

✓ TB (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -2.5

6 → TB

CloseTB -3.5

6 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open45.5

▼ 3

Close42.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -2.5 · closed TB -3.5 · moved 6 toward TBmodel TB -2.5

model TB -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (52 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -2.5

CloseTB -3.5

Total45.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 51–27; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 78 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 1.1 against an average line of 2.9; 45.5 points a game (usually 43.6). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN @ CAR 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	34–28	W	O45.5
Loose	BAL @ NO 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–13	W	U45.5
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	NE @ CAR 2021 · Week 9 · loose	-3.5	24–6	W	U42
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation	-3	36–22	W	O40
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Postseason · loose	-2.5	14–45	L	O45
Loose	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-3	20–23	L	U44
Loose	PHI @ TB 2023 · Postseason · loose · similar rest	-3	9–32	L	U43
Loose	SF @ TEN 2021 · Week 16 · loose	-3.5	17–20	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1
NO WWLWL	3-2	60%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUOO	3-2	60%	3-2
NO OOUOU	3-2	60%	2-3

Went over in Q2. Of 75 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
NO	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

TB 23–28 NO NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W
Oct 1 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ New Orleans Saints 9	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB+0.1 →−0.3▼ 0.4#18

NO+0.5 →+1.1▲ 0.6#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

Longer bar = better

#10

Offense

Even

#10

#22

Defense

NO better ▶

#14

+0.4 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.6 #7

58 plays #28

Pace

Even

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.4 #10	19.2 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.57 #13	5.58 #22	TB
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	−0.07 #9	Even
Success rate	48% #7	43% #17	TB

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	22.8 #17	NO
Yards / play	5.50 #16	5.56 #21	NO
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	+0.06 #23	NO
Success rate	44% #13	47% #26	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	7.2 #6	9.6 #5	16.8 #3	4.6 #18	4.0 #25	8.6 #24
NO allowed	3.4 #6	7.0 #21	10.4 #14	2.6 #4	6.2 #20	8.8 #11

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	8.2 #3	9.6 #5	17.8 #1	3.2 #22	7.0 #11	10.2 #20
TB allowed	4.8 #19	6.6 #17	11.4 #17	5.8 #23	4.4 #11	10.2 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.