Broncos @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Thu, Oct 17, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 7 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

3-3 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

DEN -2.5

✓ DEN W

Total

37.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 23–20 NO

✓ DEN (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -0.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNO -0.5

3 → DEN

CloseDEN -2.5

3 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open37.5

no move

Close37.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NO -0.5 · closed DEN -2.5 · moved 3 toward DENmodel DEN -1.5

model DEN -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 54% (62 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNO -0.5

CloseDEN -2.5

Total37.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 2.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 33–10; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 37.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 59%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 2.5; 41.9 points a game (usually 44). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar situation	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Loose	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	22–17	W	U40
Loose	LAC @ DEN 2024 · Week 6 · loose · similar total & season form	-2.5	23–16	W	O37.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar situation	-3	36–22	W	O40
Loose	PIT @ CIN 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings	-2	16–10	W	U36
Loose	NO @ MIN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation	-3	19–27	L	O41
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings	-1.5	20–20	L	U40.5
Loose	JAX @ PIT 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	20–10	W	U41
Loose	CIN @ PIT 2023 · Week 16 · loose	-3	11–34	L	O39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN –WWWL	4-1	80%	3-0	1-0
NO WLWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	2-2

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN –UUOO	3-2	60%	3-3
NO OUOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

Went over in Q4. Of 45 earlier overs in games with totals 34.5–40.5, 31% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%
NO	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 6–1 NO DEN leads · 7 games since 2000 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →−0.6▲ 0.4#21

NO+0.5 →−0.5▼ 1.0#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

DEN

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

NO better ▶

#14

Defense

◀ DEN better

#23

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+0.5 #8

59 plays #24

Pace

Even

60 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #25	24.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.69 #27	6.07 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #26	−0.02 #15	NO
Success rate	39% #28	45% #24	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	NO off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.8 #5	16.0 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #18	4.44 #2	DEN
EPA / play	−0.01 #17	−0.16 #2	DEN
Success rate	43% #15	38% #3	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	4.8 #25	7.7 #27	2.3 #30	8.7 #3	11.0 #16
NO allowed	5.7 #22	7.0 #19	12.7 #21	3.3 #6	8.5 #28	11.8 #19

NO scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	6.8 #7	12.5 #1	19.3 #1	2.7 #28	5.8 #18	8.5 #26
DEN allowed	5.0 #19	5.3 #11	10.3 #12	2.7 #5	3.0 #2	5.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.