Seahawks @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 7, 2024)

Sun, Oct 20, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #19

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

4-2 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

ATL -2.5

✓ SEA W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 48 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 24–26 ATL

✗ ATL (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenATL -2.5

no move

CloseATL -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open49.5

▲ 2

Close51.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ATL -2.5 · unchangedmodel ATL -1.5

model ATL -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 56% (94 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenATL -2.5

CloseATL -2.5

Total49.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 2.5-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 34–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 48 points stayed under 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 59%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 45%

Wins below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 5 against an average line of 2.9; 52.8 points a game (usually 44). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Close	MIA vs CLE 2022 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	39–17	W	O49.5
Close	LAC vs MIN 2021 · Week 10 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3	20–27	L	U53.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	21–28	L	U52
Loose	DET vs MIN 2022 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	34–23	W	O51.5
Loose	CIN vs LAC 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-3	22–41	L	O50.5
Loose	MIA vs GB 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	20–26	L	U49.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	31–34	L	O51
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-2	21–31	L	O49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LWLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	0-2
ATL WLLWW	3-3	50%	1-3	2-2

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OUOOO	5-1	83%	3-3
ATL UUOOO	3-3	50%	4-2

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 10. 33% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	2-7-1 22%	6-4 60%
ATL	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

SEA 10–7 ATL SEA leads · 17 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →−0.5▲ 0.1#19

ATL−0.8 →+0.4▲ 1.2#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6

SEA

Longer bar = better

ATL

#13

Offense

ATL better ▶

#10

#20

Defense

Even

#19

−1.0 #28

Turnovers

ATL better ▶

0.0 #13

66 plays #3

Pace

◀ SEA faster

61 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #13	22.5 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.67 #12	5.18 #10	Even
EPA / play	0.00 #16	+0.04 #22	SEA
Success rate	46% #11	48% #28	SEA

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	24.8 #11	25.0 #24	ATL
Yards / play	6.07 #7	5.46 #18	ATL
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	0.00 #19	ATL
Success rate	46% #12	43% #19	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.7 #11	4.8 #26	10.5 #20	6.7 #4	6.7 #12	13.3 #6
ATL allowed	4.5 #15	9.5 #28	14.0 #24	4.5 #13	4.0 #8	8.5 #9

ATL scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.2 #14	9.2 #6	14.3 #10	3.5 #23	6.0 #16	9.5 #22
SEA allowed	3.8 #9	8.8 #24	12.7 #20	5.2 #19	7.2 #21	12.3 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.