Cowboys @ Steelers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 9:45 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Weather at kickoff66°F6 mphgusts 22Wet0.4 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Dallas Cowboys

2-2 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers

3-1 · Power #12

final

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

✓ DAL W

Total

44.5

▼ Under · 37 pts

Model before kickoff

DAL 22–24 PIT

✗ PIT (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -2

ClosePIT -2.5

Total41.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPIT -2

0.5 → PIT

ClosePIT -2.5

0.5 pts toward Pittsburgh Steelers

Total

Open41.5

▲ 3

Close44.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PIT -2 · closed PIT -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward PITmodel DAL -1

model DAL -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (92 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPIT -2

ClosePIT -2.5

Total41.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 2.5-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 20–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 44.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.4; 44.6 points a game (usually 43.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NYJ vs DET 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form	-2	17–20	L	U43.5
Loose	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	21–27	L	O43
Loose	SF vs LAR 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	24–9	W	U42
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation	-1.5	16–41	L	O47.5
Loose	NE vs CLE 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	45–7	W	O44.5
Loose	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Loose	CAR vs ARI 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-1	16–26	L	U44
Loose	CHI vs LAR 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-3.5	24–18	W	O40.5
Loose	NYG vs DET 2022 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form	-3	18–31	L	O44.5
Loose	NYG vs CAR 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2	19–16	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WLLL	1-3	25%	1-1	1-1
PIT W–WL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: DAL away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOOU	3-1	75%	2-2
PIT U–UO	1-2	33%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 29 in the 4th quarter and got 21. 48% of games with totals 41.5–47.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
PIT	6-4 60%	5-4 56%	6-3 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DAL 3–3 PIT Series tied · 6 games since 2004 · DAL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL+2.5 →+1.5▼ 1.0#9

PIT−0.4 →+1.2▲ 1.6#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

DAL

Longer bar = better

PIT

#18

Offense

◀ DAL better

#22

#23

Defense

PIT better ▶

+0.3 #12

Turnovers

PIT better ▶

+0.5 #7

62 plays #16

Pace

PIT faster ▶

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	DAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #12	13.3 #2	PIT
Yards / play	5.36 #19	4.86 #6	PIT
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	−0.15 #7	PIT
Success rate	40% #22	38% #5	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	18.8 #25	26.0 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.95 #23	5.66 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.04 #20	+0.10 #28	PIT
Success rate	41% #19	41% #13	DAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #15	9.0 #8	14.0 #9	4.0 #19	6.3 #14	10.3 #18
PIT allowed	6.0 #23	3.3 #2	9.3 #11	0.0 #1	4.0 #9	4.0 #1

PIT scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	2.5 #28	4.8 #27	7.3 #28	4.8 #17	6.8 #11	11.5 #12
DAL allowed	8.5 #31	8.5 #25	17.0 #31	5.8 #23	3.3 #3	9.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.