Bills @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

3-1 · Power #4

final

Final

Houston Texans

3-1 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -1.5

✓ HOU W

Total

47.5

▼ Under · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 24–25 HOU

✓ HOU (54%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -1

CloseHOU -1.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBUF -1

2.5 → HOU

CloseHOU -1.5

2.5 pts toward Houston Texans

Total

Open46.5

▲ 1

Close47.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BUF -1 · closed HOU -1.5 · moved 2.5 toward HOUmodel BUF -2.5

model BUF -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 50% (46 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenBUF -1

CloseHOU -1.5

Total46.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 23–20; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 43 points stayed under 47.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 2.6; 47.7 points a game (usually 43). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	BAL vs BUF 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	35–10	W	U47.5
Loose	ATL vs NO 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	26–24	L	O42.5
Loose	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	14–37	L	O48.5
Loose	PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	24–7	W	U49.5
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Loose	LV vs NE 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar situation	-2	30–24	W	O45.5
Loose	DEN vs SF 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1	11–10	P	U44.5
Loose	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF LWWL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-1
HOU LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-4

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOU	2-2	50%	3-1
HOU OUUU	1-3	25%	3-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 52% of games with totals 44.5–50.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
HOU	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	3-6-1 33%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 6–8 HOU HOU leads · 14 games since 2002 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+2.7▲ 0.4#3

HOU+0.1 →+0.7▲ 0.6#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BUF

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ BUF better

#17

#12

Defense

Even

#14

+1.3 #3

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−0.3 #22

55 plays #30

Pace

HOU faster ▶

67 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	30.5 #2	23.5 #22	BUF
Yards / play	5.56 #14	4.82 #5	HOU
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	−0.06 #14	BUF
Success rate	47% #10	41% #13	Even

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: BUF defense

	HOU off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #19	20.8 #11	BUF
Yards / play	5.44 #17	5.01 #9	BUF
EPA / play	0.00 #16	−0.07 #12	Even
Success rate	41% #17	42% #17	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	5.8 #10	12.0 #1	17.8 #2	7.8 #1	5.0 #22	12.8 #7
HOU allowed	8.5 #30	2.5 #2	11.0 #12	5.0 #16	7.5 #25	12.5 #23

HOU scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #22	7.3 #15	11.3 #16	2.5 #26	6.0 #12	8.5 #24
BUF allowed	5.3 #19	7.5 #19	12.8 #21	3.5 #9	4.5 #11	8.0 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.