Seahawks @ Lions: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Mon, Sep 30, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Detroit Lions

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

3-0 · Power #19

final

Final

Detroit Lions

2-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

DET -4.5

✓ DET W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 22–26 DET

✓ DET (65%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -4.5

CloseDET -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -4.5

no move

CloseDET -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -4.5 · unchangedmodel DET -2

model DET -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -4.5

CloseDET -4.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 4.5-point home favorite against SEA, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 42–29; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3 against an average line of 3.7; 47.8 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Loose	CIN vs MIA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-4	27–15	W	U49
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & rest	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	24–27	L	O47
Loose	DAL vs PHI 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	40–34	W	O48
Loose	TEN vs CIN 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form	-4	16–19	L	U48
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	—
DET WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: SEA away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
DET UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 49 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
DET	7-3 70%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SEA 9–3 DET SEA leads · 12 games since 1999 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 17 2023	Seattle Seahawks 37 @ Detroit Lions 31	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA−0.6 →+1.4▲ 2.0#10

DET+1.6 →+2.4▲ 0.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

SEA

Longer bar = better

DET

#13

Offense

Even

#11

Defense

◀ SEA better

#13

−0.3 #24

Turnovers

Even

−0.3 #23

62 plays #13

Pace

DET faster ▶

71 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #9	17.7 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.55 #13	5.06 #12	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.08 #11	DET
Success rate	45% #14	43% #19	SEA

When DET has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	DET off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	20.7 #16	14.3 #4	SEA
Yards / play	5.66 #11	3.91 #1	SEA
EPA / play	+0.02 #13	−0.22 #1	SEA
Success rate	49% #4	35% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	9.0 #3	5.3 #21	14.3 #7	3.3 #24	5.7 #15	9.0 #20
DET allowed	5.3 #20	3.3 #4	8.7 #9	4.7 #14	4.3 #11	9.0 #12

DET scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	3.3 #24	8.7 #5	12.0 #13	5.7 #12	1.0 #31	6.7 #27
SEA allowed	4.3 #16	5.3 #12	9.7 #12	0.0 #1	4.7 #13	4.7 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.