Dolphins @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff64°F1 mphgusts 9DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

1-1 · Power #18

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

2-0 · Power #19

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -4.5

✓ SEA W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 23–27 SEA

✓ SEA (64%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -6.5

CloseSEA -4.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -6.5

2 → MIA

CloseSEA -4.5

2 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open42.5

▼ 1

Close41.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -6.5 · closed SEA -4.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MIA -1

model MIA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 52% (47 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSEA -6.5

CloseSEA -4.5

Total42.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 944%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.5 against an average line of 3.6; 39.1 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	TB vs LAR 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-3	16–13	P	U42.5
Loose	DEN vs IND 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3	9–12	L	U42
Loose	CAR vs WSH 2021 · Week 11 · loose	-3	21–27	L	O43
Loose	DEN vs WSH 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4	17–10	W	U45
Loose	LV vs IND 2022 · Week 10 · loose	-4	20–25	L	O41.5
Loose	NO vs LAR 2022 · Week 11 · loose	-2.5	27–20	W	O39
Loose	SEA vs WSH 2023 · Week 10 · loose	-6	29–26	L	O44
Loose	SEA vs LAR 2022 · Week 18 · loose	-5	19–16	L	U43
Loose	CIN vs PIT 2021 · Week 12 · loose	-3.5	41–10	W	O44
Loose	SF vs LAR 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2	24–9	W	U42

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LL	0-2	0%	—	—
SEA LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UU	0-2	0%	1-1
SEA OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 45% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
SEA	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 5–4 SEA MIA leads · 9 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →+1.1▼ 0.4#11

SEA−0.6 →+0.4▲ 1.0#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

MIA

Longer bar = better

SEA

#22

Offense

SEA better ▶

#16

#21

Defense

SEA better ▶

−1.0 #27

Turnovers

SEA better ▶

+0.5 #11

70 plays #3

Pace

◀ MIA faster

63 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	MIA off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #27	20.0 #15	SEA
Yards / play	5.36 #17	4.01 #2	SEA
EPA / play	−0.13 #25	−0.13 #7	SEA
Success rate	42% #20	36% #3	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	24.5 #10	24.0 #25	SEA
Yards / play	5.25 #20	5.41 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #16	+0.02 #23	SEA
Success rate	45% #17	41% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 16 teams

MIA scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	3.0	6.5
SEA allowed	5.0	8.0	13.0	0.0	7.0	7.0

SEA scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	5.0	8.0	13.0	5.0	5.0	10.0
MIA allowed	7.0	13.5	20.5	3.5	0.0	3.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.