Lions @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

1-1 · Power #3

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-1 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

DET -2.5

✓ DET W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

DET 27–24 ARI

✓ DET (59%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDET -3

0.5 → ARI

CloseDET -2.5

0.5 pts toward Arizona Cardinals

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DET -3 · closed DET -2.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARImodel DET -2.5 matches the line

model DET -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 44% (48 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenDET -3

CloseDET -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like DET as a 2.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 3, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DET won 20–13; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 4 similar games. 33 points stayed under 51.5, as in 1 of 4.

Favorite won

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

3 of 475%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 3.1; 54.5 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	GB @ CIN 2021 · Week 5 · loose	-3.5	25–22	L	U50
Loose	LAC @ PHI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	27–24	W	O49.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	41–14	W	O54
Loose	KC @ CIN 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-4	31–34	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
ARI WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET UU	0-2	0%	1-1
ARI OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 28% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ARI	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DET 9–10 ARI (1 tied) ARI leads · 20 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.9▲ 0.3#5

ARI−1.7 →+0.2▲ 1.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DET

Longer bar = better

ARI

#13

Offense

ARI better ▶

#16

Defense

◀ DET better

#21

−0.5 #20

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #17

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ DET faster

61 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #16	22.0 #18	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #11	5.43 #20	DET
EPA / play	+0.01 #15	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	46% #11	51% #30	DET

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	34.5 #2	20.0 #13	ARI
Yards / play	6.22 #5	4.98 #14	ARI
EPA / play	+0.21 #3	−0.01 #16	ARI
Success rate	47% #9	43% #20	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

DET scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	8.5	1.5	10.0
ARI allowed	0.0	6.5	6.5	10.5	5.0	15.5

ARI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	10.5	10.0	20.5	5.0	9.0	14.0
DET allowed	4.5	3.5	8.0	7.0	5.0	12.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.