Broncos @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Weather at kickoff86°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

0-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-0 · Power #7

final

Closing spread

TB -5.5

✓ DEN W

Total

40.5

▼ Under · 33 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 20–25 TB

✗ TB (69%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -7

CloseTB -5.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenTB -7

1.5 → DEN

CloseTB -5.5

1.5 pts toward Denver Broncos

Total

Open39.5

▲ 1

Close40.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened TB -7 · closed TB -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward DENmodel TB -5

model TB -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (82 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenTB -7

CloseTB -5.5

Total39.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 5.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 26–7 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 33 points stayed under 40.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 6; 35.7 points a game (usually 45.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	JAX vs HOU 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	6–13	L	U43.5
Loose	JAX vs TEN 2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	20–16	L	U40
Loose	NO vs NYG 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	21–27	L	O42.5
Loose	NE vs IND 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5	26–3	W	U40
Loose	NO vs ATL 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7	25–27	L	O43
Loose	CLE vs ARI 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	27–0	W	U38.5
Loose	NO vs NYG 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	24–6	W	U39.5
Loose	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	CHI vs ARI 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	27–16	W	O42
Loose	LAR vs PIT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	17–24	L	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN W–	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
TB WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN O–	1-0	100%	0-2
TB OU	1-1	50%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 14 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	4-6 40%	4-5 44%	5-4 56%
TB	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 5–2 TB DEN leads · 7 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →−1.7▼ 0.7#28

TB+0.1 →+0.3▲ 0.2#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

DEN

Longer bar = better

#29

Offense

TB better ▶

Defense

◀ DEN better

#18

−1.5 #29

Turnovers

TB better ▶

+0.5 #8

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ DEN faster

54 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	DEN off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #29	18.0 #6	TB
Yards / play	4.21 #27	5.48 #21	TB
EPA / play	−0.28 #30	+0.01 #20	TB
Success rate	30% #31	45% #23	TB

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	28.5 #4	19.5 #12	TB
Yards / play	5.63 #13	4.70 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #5	−0.10 #10	TB
Success rate	46% #14	36% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

DEN scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	1.5	5.0	6.5	0.0	6.5	6.5
TB allowed	1.5	5.0	6.5	8.5	3.0	11.5

TB scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	6.0	8.5	14.5	7.0	7.0	14.0
DEN allowed	5.0	4.5	9.5	6.5	3.5	10.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.