Broncos @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff64°F10 mphgusts 20Wet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Denver Broncos

1-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

New York Jets

2-1 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

NYJ -8.5

✓ DEN W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 19 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 17–25 NYJ

✗ NYJ (76%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -7.5

CloseNYJ -8.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -7.5

1 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -8.5

1 pt toward New York Jets

Total

Open38.5

▲ 1

Close39.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -7.5 · closed NYJ -8.5 · moved 1 toward NYJmodel NYJ -2.5

model NYJ -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 47% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -7.5

CloseNYJ -8.5

Total38.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 9 games most like NYJ as an 8.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: DEN won 10–9 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 9 similar games. 19 points stayed under 39.5, as in 3 of 9.

Favorite won

8 of 989%

Normal range · usually 77%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 53%

Only 9 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 7.7; 44.2 points a game (usually 47.4). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 9 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	NYJ vs NE 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	24–3	W	U39.5
Loose	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	CIN vs BAL 2022 · Postseason · loose	-7.5	24–17	L	O40
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form	-6.5	26–17	W	O42.5
Loose	NE vs TEN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-7	36–13	W	O43.5
Loose	NE vs CHI 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	14–33	L	O40
Loose	BAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 14 · loose	-7.5	37–31	L	O42
Loose	DAL vs CHI 2022 · Week 8 · loose	-10	49–29	W	O42.5
Loose	SF vs NO 2022 · Week 12 · loose	-9	13–0	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN W–W	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0
NYJ LWW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN O–U	1-1	50%	1-2
NYJ OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 27 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 50% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	4-6 40%	5-4 56%	5-4 56%
NYJ	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DEN 10–6 NYJ DEN leads · 16 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 8 2023	New York Jets 31 @ Denver Broncos 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN−1.0 →−0.2▲ 0.8#17

NYJ−1.2 →+0.4▲ 1.6#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DEN

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#26

Offense

NYJ better ▶

#11

Defense

Even

−0.7 #28

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.3 #12

63 plays #11

Pace

◀ DEN faster

58 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	DEN off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	17.3 #23	17.3 #8	NYJ
Yards / play	4.65 #26	4.72 #9	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.16 #26	−0.10 #10	NYJ
Success rate	38% #29	39% #8	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	NYJ off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.3 #14	15.3 #6	DEN
Yards / play	5.32 #17	4.47 #3	DEN
EPA / play	+0.10 #5	−0.19 #7	Even
Success rate	49% #7	39% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	5.7 #9	5.3 #19	11.0 #17	0.0 #32	6.3 #10	6.3 #26
NYJ allowed	3.3 #8	6.3 #18	9.7 #12	5.7 #21	2.0 #1	7.7 #10

NYJ scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	4.7 #15	4.7 #25	9.3 #20	7.7 #3	5.3 #18	13.0 #8
DEN allowed	3.3 #8	5.3 #10	8.7 #8	4.3 #12	2.3 #4	6.7 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.