Chiefs @ Chargers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F13 mphgusts 24DryWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

3-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Chargers

2-1 · Power #13

final

Closing spread

KC -7.5

✓ LAC W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 24–17 LAC

✓ KC (73%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -7

CloseKC -7.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -7

0.5 → KC

CloseKC -7.5

0.5 pts toward Kansas City Chiefs

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -7 · closed KC -7.5 · moved 0.5 toward KCmodel KC -1.5

model KC -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -7

CloseKC -7.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 4 games most like KC as a 7.5-point road favorite at LAC, the favorite won 2, covered 1, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 17–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 3 of the 4 similar games. 27 points stayed under 41.5, as in 2 of 4.

Favorite won

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 68%

Favorite covered

1 of 425%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

2 of 450%

Normal range · usually 51%

Only 4 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 6; 46.3 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 4 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	GB @ BAL 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-7	31–30	L	O44.5
Loose	BUF @ NE 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	24–10	W	U44
Loose	BAL @ NYG 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-5.5	20–24	L	U45.5
Loose	KC @ GB 2023 · Week 13 · loose	-6	19–27	L	O44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
LAC WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	0-1

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; LAC home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OOU	2-1	67%	3-0
LAC UUU	0-3	0%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 22 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 47% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	8-2 80%	3-6-1 33%
LAC	3-7 30%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KC 32–23 LAC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 13 @ Los Angeles Chargers 12	LAC -3.5	KC W
Oct 22 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -5.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+1.9▼ 0.3#7

LAC−0.7 →+0.7▲ 1.4#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ KC better

#19

#22

Defense

LAC better ▶

−0.7 #24

Turnovers

LAC better ▶

+1.0 #5

60 plays #16

Pace

◀ KC faster

55 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #6	11.0 #3	Even
Yards / play	5.44 #15	4.71 #8	LAC
EPA / play	+0.07 #12	−0.20 #5	LAC
Success rate	51% #1	35% #2	Even

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	19.3 #19	20.7 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #21	5.67 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #18	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	42% #17	49% #28	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	3.3 #24	8.7 #5	12.0 #13	7.7 #2	5.3 #19	13.0 #7
LAC allowed	2.3 #2	2.3 #2	4.7 #2	2.0 #3	4.3 #12	6.3 #6

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.3 #12	6.7 #15	12.0 #13	2.0 #30	5.3 #19	7.3 #24
KC allowed	5.7 #21	7.7 #20	13.3 #25	2.0 #3	5.3 #19	7.3 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.