Bengals @ Panthers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Carolina Panthers

Weather at kickoff78°F5 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

0-3 · Power #14

▲ winner

Final

Carolina Panthers

1-2 · Power #32

final

Closing spread

CIN -5.5

✓ CIN W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 58 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–20 CAR

✓ CIN (69%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5.5

no move

CloseCIN -5.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 3

Close47.5

Up 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -5

model CIN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -5.5

Total44.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 5.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 34–24; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 58 points went over 47.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 46%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.3 against an average line of 5.7; 40.9 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF @ LAR 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Loose	CIN @ NYJ 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4.5	27–12	W	U45.5
Loose	TEN @ JAX 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	37–19	W	O48.5
Loose	CLE @ HOU 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	27–14	W	U46
Loose	BAL @ MIA 2021 · Week 10 · loose	-6.5	10–22	L	U47
Loose	TEN @ NYJ 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & season form	-7.5	24–27	L	O44
Loose	GB @ DET 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest	-4	9–15	L	U49.5
Loose	TB @ PIT 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-6.5	18–20	L	U46.5
Loose	PHI @ NYJ 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	33–18	W	O43.5
Loose	MIN @ CHI 2021 · Week 15 · loose	-6	17–9	W	U47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	0-2
CAR LLW	1-2	33%	0-1	1-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN UOO	2-1	67%	0-3
CAR OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q3. Of 46 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
CAR	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CIN 4–3 CAR (1 tied) CIN leads · 8 games since 1999 · CIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−0.2 →−0.9▼ 0.7#19

CAR−2.5 →−3.9▼ 1.4#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

CIN

Longer bar = better

CAR

Offense

◀ CIN better

#28

#25

Defense

Even

#27

0.0 #15

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #14

56 plays #26

Pace

Even

57 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #13	31.7 #32	CIN
Yards / play	5.80 #11	5.69 #24	CIN
EPA / play	+0.10 #6	+0.08 #27	CIN
Success rate	51% #3	49% #26	CIN

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #27	26.7 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.18 #14	CIN
EPA / play	−0.21 #28	+0.13 #29	Even
Success rate	36% #30	50% #29	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	3.3 #18	6.3 #14	9.7 #19	6.7 #6	6.3 #10	13.0 #8
CAR allowed	10.0 #31	9.0 #27	19.0 #31	3.3 #9	9.3 #27	12.7 #24

CAR scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	2.3 #26	5.7 #17	8.0 #24	5.3 #12	3.0 #26	8.3 #22
CIN allowed	3.3 #8	10.3 #31	13.7 #25	5.7 #21	7.3 #24	13.0 #25

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.