Commanders @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Mon, Sep 23, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff76°F3 mphWet0.0 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

0-2 · Power #14

final

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

✓ WSH W

Total

46.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 20–28 CIN

✗ CIN (75%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -7.5

no move

CloseCIN -7.5

No change since the open

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Close46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -7.5 · unchangedmodel CIN -6.5

model CIN -6.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 66%, covered 46% (59 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenCIN -7.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 7.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 38–33 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 46.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 69%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 44%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.3 against an average line of 7.1; 40.9 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Close	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & rest	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	MIA vs PIT 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & rest	-7	16–10	L	U44
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Loose	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Loose	GB vs NYJ 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-8	10–27	L	U44.5
Loose	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7	26–14	W	U46
Loose	CLE vs CHI 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	26–6	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1
CIN LW	1-1	50%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OU	1-1	50%	1-1
CIN UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 54 earlier overs in games with totals 43.5–49.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	1-9 10%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
CIN	4-6 40%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

WSH 2–3 CIN (1 tied) CIN leads · 6 games since 2004 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →−3.3▼ 0.2#30

CIN−0.2 →−0.6▼ 0.4#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

WSH

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ WSH better

#17

#29

Defense

CIN better ▶

#15

+0.5 #7

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

0.0 #14

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ WSH faster

55 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #15	21.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.79 #10	4.68 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.14 #3	−0.05 #13	WSH
Success rate	46% #9	45% #23	WSH

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	17.5 #22	27.5 #28	CIN
Yards / play	4.99 #21	6.21 #31	CIN
EPA / play	−0.05 #17	+0.19 #31	CIN
Success rate	48% #7	48% #26	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 30 teams

WSH scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	6.5	6.0	12.5
CIN allowed	1.5	8.5	10.0	5.0	6.0	11.0

CIN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	6.5	3.0	9.5
WSH allowed	6.0	8.0	14.0	3.5	10.0	13.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.