Bears @ Texans: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Houston Texans

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

1-0 · Power #24

final

Final

Houston Texans

1-0 · Power #11

▲ winner

Closing spread

HOU -6.5

✓ CHI W

Total

45.5

▼ Under · 32 pts

Model before kickoff

CHI 21–27 HOU

✓ HOU (72%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -6.5

no move

CloseHOU -6.5

No change since the open

Total

Open46.5

▼ 1

Close45.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened HOU -6.5 · unchangedmodel HOU -4.5

model HOU -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 49% (43 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenHOU -6.5

CloseHOU -6.5

Total46.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 6.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 19–13; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 45.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 65%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 43%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 6.3; 53.4 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs ATL 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	35–17	W	O48
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6	17–41	L	O46
Loose	LAC vs PIT 2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	41–37	L	O47.5
Loose	BAL vs CLE 2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-6.5	23–20	L	U46.5
Loose	LAR vs SEA 2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	20–10	W	U47
Loose	BAL vs IND 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	31–25	L	O46.5
Loose	DAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-7	43–20	W	O44.5
Loose	ARI vs SEA 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	30–38	L	O48.5
Loose	CIN vs HOU 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Loose	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest	-5.5	26–3	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI W	1-0	100%	—	—
HOU L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI U	0-1	0%	1-0
HOU O	1-0	100%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 47% of games with totals 42.5–48.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	3-6-1 33%
HOU	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	4-5-1 44%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 2–5 HOU HOU leads · 7 games since 2004 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI−0.3 →−0.4▼ 0.1#20

HOU+0.1 →+0.9▲ 0.8#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

CHI

Longer bar = better

HOU

#24

Offense

HOU better ▶

Defense

◀ CHI better

#26

+2.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

+1.0 #7

53 plays #25

Pace

HOU faster ▶

76 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #12	27.0 #27	CHI
Yards / play	2.79 #32	7.05 #31	Even
EPA / play	−0.25 #28	+0.05 #25	Even
Success rate	38% #24	43% #20	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #5	17.0 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.49 #16	4.00 #2	CHI
EPA / play	+0.14 #4	−0.26 #4	Even
Success rate	48% #5	38% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.