Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Carolina Panthers
Closing spread
LAC -4.5
✓ LAC W
Total
38.5
▼ Under · 29 pts
Model before kickoff
LAC 23–18 CAR
✓ LAC (66%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAC -3
CloseLAC -4.5
Total42 → 38.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAC -3
1.5 → LAC
CloseLAC -4.5
1.5 pts toward Los Angeles Chargers
Total
Open42
▼ 3.5
Close38.5
Down 3.5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAC -3 · closed LAC -4.5 · moved 1.5 toward LACmodel LAC -5
model LAC -5
Opened 42 · closed 38.5 · moved 3.5 downmodel 41.5
model 41.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 42% (46 games)ⓘ
Moved off 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAC -3
CloseLAC -4.5
Total42 → 38.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
LAC as a 4.5-point road favorite at CAR. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Los Angeles Chargers ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Los Angeles Chargers
1.5 pts (LAC -3 → LAC -4.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 3.5
42 → 38.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Los Angeles Chargers on a cross-country trip
Los Angeles Chargers cross 3 time zones (2,121 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Wind 15 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 15 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
Los Angeles Chargers has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 13 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 54% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
 CAR | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
The series
LAC 2–5 CAR
CAR leads · 7 games since 2000 · LAC has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LAC−0.7 →0.0▲ 0.7#17
CAR−2.5 →−3.9▼ 1.4#32
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
LACLonger bar = better
CAR#18
Offense
◀ LAC better#30
#7
Defense
◀ LAC better#28
+3.0 #2
Turnovers
◀ LAC better−2.0 #25
54 plays #23
Pace
Even55 plays #22
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When LAC has the ball| LAC off | CAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.0 #16 | 47.0 #32 | LAC |
| Yards / play | 5.85 #9 | 6.11 #26 | LAC |
| EPA / play | −0.09 #19 | +0.21 #29 | LAC |
| Success rate | 37% #26 | 47% #24 | Even |
When CAR has the ball| CAR off | LAC def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 10.0 #29 | 10.0 #5 | LAC |
| Yards / play | 3.51 #29 | 5.02 #13 | LAC |
| EPA / play | −0.49 #32 | −0.33 #4 | LAC |
| Success rate | 29% #30 | 32% #5 | LAC |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CAR +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
80° · 15 mph
gusts 31 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
LAC7d
CAR7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 109 plays
slowavg 120fast
Travel
LAC 2,121 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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