Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game
Closing spread
LAC -3
✓ LAC W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 32 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 21–24 LAC
✓ LAC (60%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAC -3
CloseLAC -3
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLAC -3
no move
CloseLAC -3
No change since the open
Total
Open42.5
▼ 2
Close40.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LAC -3 · unchangedmodel LAC -1.5
model LAC -1.5
Opened 42.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 2 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 73%, covered 57% (67 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLAC -3
CloseLAC -3
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
LAC as a 3-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 6, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: LAC won 22–10; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 32 points stayed under 40.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
3 of 933%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 44%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.6 against an average line of 3.1; 50.6 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  TEN vs  IND2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 19–10 | W | U43 |
| Loose |  MIA vs IND2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-2.5 | 17–27 | L | O42 |
| Loose |  SF vs IND2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 18–30 | L | O41 |
| Loose |  NYG vs  CHI2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 20–12 | W | U39 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 37–17 | W | O39.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 27–24 | P | O41.5 |
| Loose |  BAL vs MIA2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 38–42 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose |  NE vs MIA2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 16–17 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 39–37 | L | O39.5 |
| Loose |  WSH vs NYG2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 30–29 | L | O41 |
ATL
CIN
MIN
HOU
TBHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2
42.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Wind 12 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 12 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 25 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 47% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 LV | 5-5 50% | 7-2-1 78% | 4-6 40% |
| LAC | 2-8 20% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
LV 22–33 LAC
LAC leads · 55 games since 1999 · LV has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14 2023 | Los Angeles Chargers 21 @ Las Vegas Raiders 63 | LV -3 | LV W |
| Oct 1 2023 | Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 24 | LAC -6.5 | LAC W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
LAC +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
100° · 12 mph
gusts 22 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
LV1st game
LAC1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
KC
DEN @ 
SEA
GB vs 
PHI
PIT @ 
ARI @ 
BUF
JAX @ 
CAR @ 
NO