Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Atlanta Falcons
Closing spread
ATL -4.5
✓ PIT W
Total
43.5
▼ Under · 28 pts
Model before kickoff
PIT 21–25 ATL
✗ ATL (65%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenATL -2.5
CloseATL -4.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenATL -2.5
2 → ATL
CloseATL -4.5
2 pts toward Atlanta Falcons
Total
Open42.5
▲ 1
Close43.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ATL -2.5 · closed ATL -4.5 · moved 2 toward ATLmodel ATL -1
model ATL -1
Opened 42.5 · closed 43.5 · moved 1 upmodel 46
model 46
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (87 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenATL -2.5
CloseATL -4.5
Total42.5 → 43.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
ATL as a 4.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: PIT won 18–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 28 points stayed under 43.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 44%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 4; 48.7 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  IND vs  TEN2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-4 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |  BAL vs  MIA2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 38–42 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose |  LAR vs  DAL2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings |
-5 | 10–22 | L | U41.5 |
| Loose |  LV vs IND2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4 | 20–25 | L | O41.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 16–17 | L | U44.5 |
| Loose |  NE vs MIA2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 16–17 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4 | 30–22 | W | O45.5 |
| Loose | ATL vs  CAR2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 37–34 | L | O41.5 |
| Loose |  WSH vs  NYG2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4 | 30–29 | L | O41 |
| Loose | TEN vs IND 2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-4.5 | 25–16 | W | U47 |
DEN
NOHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Atlanta Falcons ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Atlanta Falcons
2 pts (ATL -2.5 → ATL -4.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Pittsburgh Steelers have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 45% of games with totals 40.5–46.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 PIT | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
| ATL | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
The series
PIT 7–1 ATL (1 tied)
PIT leads · 9 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 6 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
ATL +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
PIT1st game
ATL1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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