Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Closing spread
TB -3.5
✓ TB W
Total
41.5
▲ Over · 57 pts
Model before kickoff
WSH 22–26 TB
✓ TB (64%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTB -3.5
CloseTB -3.5
Total41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenTB -3.5
no move
CloseTB -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open41.5
no move
Close41.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened TB -3.5 · unchangedmodel TB -7
model TB -7
Opened 41.5 · unchangedmodel 47.5
model 47.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 57% (72 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenTB -3.5
CloseTB -3.5
Total41.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
TB as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: TB won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 41.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
5 of 956%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 43%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 3.2; 38.8 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  DAL vs  WSH2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 25–10 | W | U41 |
| Loose |  PIT vs  CIN2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 10–24 | L | U42 |
| Loose | WSH vs  JAX2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 28–22 | W | O43 |
| Loose |  CAR vs  NYJ2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 19–14 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose | TB vs CAR 2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 30–24 | W | O40.5 |
| Loose | PIT vs NYJ 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 20–24 | L | O41.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |  CHI vs  HOU2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 23–20 | P | O39.5 |
| Loose |  TEN vs  MIA2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 34–3 | W | U41 |
| Loose |  NO vs CAR2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 7–10 | L | U41.5 |
LARHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Washington Commanders have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 52 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 1-9 10% | 3-6-1 33% | 7-3 70% |
| TB | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
WSH 9–9 TB
Series tied · 18 games since 1999 · WSH has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
TB +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
83° · 1 mph
gusts 13 mph · 0.02 in rain · at kickoff
Rest
WSH1st game
TB1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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ATL
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CLE
BAL @ 
KC
ARI @ 
BUF
NE @ 
IND