Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Detroit Lions
Closing spread
DET -5.5
✓ DET W
Total
53.5
▼ Under · 46 pts
Model before kickoff
LAR 23–28 DET
✓ DET (68%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDET -3.5
CloseDET -5.5
Total51.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDET -3.5
2 → DET
CloseDET -5.5
2 pts toward Detroit Lions
Total
Open51.5
▲ 2
Close53.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DET -3.5 · closed DET -5.5 · moved 2 toward DETmodel DET -1.5
model DET -1.5
Opened 51.5 · closed 53.5 · moved 2 upmodel 51
model 51
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDET -3.5
CloseDET -5.5
Total51.5 → 53.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
DET as a 5.5-point home favorite against LAR, the favorite won 4, covered 1, and 7 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: DET won 26–20; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 46 points stayed under 53.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 61%
Favorite covered
1 of 1010%
Below normal · usually 43%
Went over
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 46%
Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 4.8 against an average line of 5.5; 58.6 points a game (usually 45.3). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  LV vs  ARI2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-5 | 23–29 | L | U52.5 |
| Loose | ARI vs  KC2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-6 | 21–44 | L | O55 |
| Loose |  DAL vs  CAR2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4.5 | 36–28 | W | O51.5 |
| Loose |  SEA vs  TEN2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 30–33 | L | O54 |
| Loose | DAL vs ARI 2021 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6 | 22–25 | L | U52.5 |
| Loose | KC vs  CLE2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-5 | 33–29 | L | O54.5 |
| Loose | ARI vs  MIN2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 34–33 | L | O50.5 |
| Loose |  LAR vs TEN2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings |
-7 | 16–28 | L | U53 |
| Loose |  BAL vs MIN2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-7 | 34–31 | L | O51 |
| Loose | LAR vs ARI 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4 | 20–37 | L | O54 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Over trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Detroit Lions
2 pts (DET -3.5 → DET -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
51.5 → 53.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Los Angeles Rams on a cross-country trip
Los Angeles Rams cross 3 time zones (1,987 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Los Angeles Rams have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% |
| DET | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
Last 1 since 2023
LAR 7–7 DET
Series tied · 14 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 14 2023 | Los Angeles Rams 23 @ Detroit Lions 24 | DET -3 | LAR W |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DET +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
LAR1st game
DET1st game
Even
Travel
LAR 1,987 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
GB vs 
PHI
BUF
CHI
NYG
DEN @ 
NYJ @ 
SF
PIT @ 
ATL
NE @ 
CIN
HOU @ 
IND