Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Seattle Seahawks
Closing spread
SEA -6.5
✓ DEN W
Total
42.5
▲ Over · 46 pts
Model before kickoff
DEN 21–27 SEA
✓ SEA (71%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSEA -5
CloseSEA -6.5
Total41.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSEA -5
1.5 → SEA
CloseSEA -6.5
1.5 pts toward Seattle Seahawks
Total
Open41.5
▲ 1
Close42.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SEA -5 · closed SEA -6.5 · moved 1.5 toward SEAmodel SEA -2.5
model SEA -2.5
Opened 41.5 · closed 42.5 · moved 1 upmodel 48
model 48
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 49% (51 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenSEA -5
CloseSEA -6.5
Total41.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
SEA as a 6.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 2, and 2 went over the total.
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This game: SEA won 26–20; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 8 of the 10 similar games. 46 points went over 42.5, as in 2 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 65%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
2 of 825%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 6.3; 39.2 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6 | 20–16 | L | U40 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6 | 29–26 | L | O44 |
| Loose |  MIA vs  PIT2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7 | 16–10 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  CIN vs PIT2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation |
-7 | 20–23 | L | U44 |
| Loose | PIT vs SEA 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-5.5 | 23–20 | L | P43 |
| Loose |  CLE vs  CHI2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 26–6 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |  LAR vs  DAL2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-5 | 10–22 | L | U41.5 |
| Loose |  LAC vs LAR2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 31–10 | W | P41 |
| Loose | LAC vs  JAX2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 10–38 | L | O45.5 |
| Loose | JAX vs  TEN2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6 | 20–16 | L | U40 |
WSH
ARIHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Seattle Seahawks ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Seattle Seahawks
1.5 pts (SEA -5 → SEA -6.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Denver Broncos have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 55 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 DEN | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% |
| SEA | 4-6 40% | 4-5-1 44% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
The series
DEN 8–7 SEA
DEN leads · 15 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
SEA +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
74° · 7 mph
gusts 17 mph · at kickoff
Rest
DEN1st game
SEA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
BAL @ 
KC
BUF
LV @ 
DET
NYJ @ 
SF
GB vs 
PHI
ATL
NE @ 
HOU @ 
IND