Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Cleveland Browns
Closing spread
CLE -2
✓ DAL W
Total
42.5
▲ Over · 50 pts
Model before kickoff
DAL 22–23 CLE
✗ CLE (55%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCLE -1
CloseCLE -2
Total43.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCLE -1
1 → CLE
CloseCLE -2
1 pt toward Cleveland Browns
Total
Open43.5
▼ 1
Close42.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CLE -1 · closed CLE -2 · moved 1 toward CLEmodel DAL -3
model DAL -3
Opened 43.5 · closed 42.5 · moved 1 downmodel 45
model 45
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 1–3 since 2023: won 70%, covered 57% (50 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCLE -1
CloseCLE -2
Total43.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CLE as a 2-point home favorite against DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: DAL won 33–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 50 points went over 42.5, as in 3 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 58%
Favorite covered
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 49%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 42%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.9 against an average line of 2; 41.5 points a game (usually 43.4). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  CAR vs CLE2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 24–26 | L | O42 |
| Loose |  WSH vs  LAC2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-2 | 16–20 | L | U45 |
| Loose | CAR vs  ARI2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-1 | 16–26 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  NE vs  NO2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 13–28 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  PHI vs NO2021 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 40–29 | W | O42 |
| Loose | NE vs CLE 2021 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 45–7 | W | O44.5 |
| Loose |  DEN vs  SF2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-1 | 11–10 | P | U44.5 |
| Loose |  PIT vs  TEN2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings |
-1 | 19–13 | W | U44 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 11 · loose |
-2.5 | 21–20 | L | U43 |
| Loose | CLE vs DEN 2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation |
-2 | 17–14 | W | U40.5 |
MINHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Cleveland Browns ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Cleveland Browns
1 pt (CLE -1 → CLE -2). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Wind 14 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 14 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
Dallas Cowboys have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 56 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 20% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 DAL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
| CLE | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
The series
DAL 5–1 CLE
DAL leads · 6 games since 2004 · DAL has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CLE +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
64° · 14 mph
gusts 17 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
DAL1st game
CLE1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
BAL @ 
KC
GB vs 
ATL
CIN
NYG
TB
BUF
CHI
HOU @ 
IND
JAX @ 
MIA