Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Miami Dolphins
Closing spread
MIA -3.5
✓ JAX W
Total
49.5
▼ Under · 37 pts
Model before kickoff
JAX 23–26 MIA
✓ MIA (63%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIA -3.5
CloseMIA -3.5
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenMIA -3.5
no move
CloseMIA -3.5
No change since the open
Total
Open48.5
▲ 1
Close49.5
Up 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened MIA -3.5 · unchangedmodel MIA -3.5 matches the line
model MIA -3.5 = line ✓
Opened 48.5 · closed 49.5 · moved 1 upmodel 48.5
model 48.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 58% (66 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenMIA -3.5
CloseMIA -3.5
Total48.5 → 49.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
MIA as a 3.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.
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This game: MIA won 20–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 37 points stayed under 49.5, as in 7 of 10.
Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
3 of 1030%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.2 against an average line of 3.3; 45 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  CIN vs MIA2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 27–15 | W | U49 |
| Loose | MIA vs  GB2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 20–26 | L | U49.5 |
| Loose |  ARI vs  MIN2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-4 | 34–33 | L | O50.5 |
| Loose | MIA vs  CLE2022 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 39–17 | W | O49.5 |
| Loose |  ATL vs  PHI2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 6–32 | L | U49 |
| Loose |  LAC vs  NE2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 24–27 | L | O50.5 |
| Loose | PHI vs MIN 2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 24–7 | W | U49.5 |
| Loose | LAC vs  LV2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 24–19 | W | U52.5 |
| Loose |  BAL vs LAC2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 34–6 | W | U51 |
| Loose | BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3 | 19–17 | L | U47.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Jacksonville Jaguars have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 JAX | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
| MIA | 5-5 50% | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% |
Recent meetings
The series
JAX 5–6 MIA
MIA leads · 11 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
MIA +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
90° · 10 mph
gusts 20 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
JAX1st game
MIA1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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