Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Cincinnati Bengals
Closing spread
CIN -7.5
✓ NE W
Total
40.5
▼ Under · 26 pts
Model before kickoff
NE 19–26 CIN
✗ CIN (75%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCIN -9
CloseCIN -7.5
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCIN -9
1.5 → NE
CloseCIN -7.5
1.5 pts toward New England Patriots
Total
Open42.5
▼ 2
Close40.5
Down 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CIN -9 · closed CIN -7.5 · moved 1.5 toward NEmodel CIN -6
model CIN -6
Opened 42.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 2 downmodel 45.5
model 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–9.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 56% (45 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCIN -9
CloseCIN -7.5
Total42.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CIN as a 7.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: NE won 16–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 26 points stayed under 40.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
8 of 1080%
Normal range · usually 70%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 46%
Went over
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 51%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 7.1; 41.6 points a game (usually 46.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  NE vs  CHI2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-8.5 | 14–33 | L | O40 |
| Loose |  PIT vs CHI2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7 | 29–27 | L | O40 |
| Loose |  GB vs  LAR2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings |
-7.5 | 24–12 | W | U40 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 34–14 | W | O40 |
| Loose | CIN vs PIT 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-7 | 20–23 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  MIA vs PIT2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-7 | 16–10 | L | U44 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7.5 | 27–0 | W | U38.5 |
| Loose |  LAC vs LAR2022 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 31–10 | W | P41 |
| Loose | CIN vs  CAR2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7 | 42–21 | W | O42.5 |
| Loose | MIA vs  NYG2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 20–9 | W | U39.5 |
JAX
TEN
CLE
ARIHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight New England Patriots ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward New England Patriots
1.5 pts (CIN -9 → CIN -7.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 2
42.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
New England Patriots have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 21 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 48% of games with totals 37.5–43.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 2-8 20% | 3-6-1 33% | 5-5 50% |
| CIN | 5-5 50% | 4-5-1 44% | 7-3 70% |
Recent meetings
The series
NE 10–3 CIN
NE leads · 13 games since 2000 · NE has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CIN +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 2 mph
gusts 10 mph · at kickoff
Rest
NE1st game
CIN1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
BAL @ 
KC
ATL
BUF
DAL @ 
NYJ @ 
SF
PHI
HOU @ 
IND
NO