Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game
Closing spread
HOU -3.5
✓ IND W
Total
48.5
▲ Over · 56 pts
Model before kickoff
HOU 27–23 IND
✓ HOU (62%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenHOU -2
CloseHOU -3.5
Total48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenHOU -2
1.5 → HOU
CloseHOU -3.5
1.5 pts toward Houston Texans
Total
Open48.5
no move
Close48.5
No change since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened HOU -2 · closed HOU -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward HOUmodel HOU -1
model HOU -1
Opened 48.5 · unchangedmodel 50
model 50
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 49% (52 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenHOU -2
CloseHOU -3.5
Total48.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
HOU as a 3.5-point road favorite at IND, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.
Compare by
Customize filters
Only include
Show up togames
This game: HOU won 29–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 48.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 60%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 944%
Normal range · usually 43%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.4 against an average line of 3.2; 47 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  LAR @  ARI2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4.5 | 20–12 | W | U48.5 |
| Loose |  PHI @  DET2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 38–35 | L | O48.5 |
| Loose |  SEA @  IND2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 28–16 | W | U48 |
| Loose |  BUF @  MIA2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 35–0 | W | U47.5 |
| Loose |  LAC @ ARI2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 25–24 | L | P49 |
| Loose |  SF @ PHI2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 17–11 | W | U49 |
| Loose | PHI @ DET 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 44–6 | W | O48 |
| Loose | LAC @ PHI 2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar team ratings |
-2.5 | 27–24 | W | O49.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 21–20 | L | U47.5 |
| Loose | LAC @  LV2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3 | 32–35 | L | O49.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Houston Texans ATS trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Houston Texans
1.5 pts (HOU -2 → HOU -3.5), through the key number 3. · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Small sample warning
Houston Texans have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 28 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 3-6-1 33% |
| IND | 6-4 60% | 5-5 50% | 6-4 60% |
Recent meetings
Last 2 since 2023
HOU 15–34 IND (1 tied)
IND leads · 50 games since 2002 · IND has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 6 2023 | Houston Texans 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 19 | HOU -1.5 | HOU W |
| Sep 17 2023 | Indianapolis Colts 31 @ Houston Texans 20 | — | — |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
IND +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
HOU1st game
IND1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
TEN @ 
CHI
JAX @ 
BAL @ 
KC
GB vs 
PIT @ 
ATL
NE @ 
CIN
CAR @ 
NO
MIN @ 
NYG