Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Chicago Bears
Closing spread
CHI -4.5
✓ CHI W
Total
42.5
▼ Under · 41 pts
Model before kickoff
TEN 20–25 CHI
✓ CHI (66%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCHI -4.5
CloseCHI -4.5
Total43.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCHI -4.5
no move
CloseCHI -4.5
No change since the open
Total
Open43.5
▼ 1
Close42.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CHI -4.5 · unchangedmodel CHI -4
model CHI -4
Opened 43.5 · closed 42.5 · moved 1 downmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–6.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 56% (87 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenCHI -4.5
CloseCHI -4.5
Total43.5 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
CHI as a 4.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.
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This game: CHI won 24–17; the favorite covered, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 42.5, as in 5 of 10.
Favorite won
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 59%
Favorite covered
2 of 1020%
Normal range · usually 45%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 44%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.2 against an average line of 4.1; 45.2 points a game (usually 43.9). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |
2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 17–24 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4 | 20–34 | L | O41 |
| Loose |  WSH vs  NYG2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-4 | 30–29 | L | O41 |
| Loose |  CLE vs  PIT2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar team ratings |
-5 | 10–15 | L | U43 |
| Loose |  LAR vs  DAL2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-5 | 10–22 | L | U41.5 |
| Loose |  NE vs  MIA2021 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-3.5 | 16–17 | L | U43.5 |
| Loose |  BAL vs MIA2022 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3.5 | 38–42 | L | O43.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings |
-4.5 | 27–16 | W | O42 |
| Loose | WSH vs  JAX2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-3 | 28–22 | W | O43 |
| Loose |  SEA vs LAR2022 · Week 18 · loose · similar team ratings |
-5 | 19–16 | L | U43 |
GB
TB
ARIHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 1 trend and market move behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Small sample warning
Tennessee Titans have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 14. 49% of games with totals 39.5–45.5 went over.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 TEN | 3-7 30% | 3-6-1 33% | 4-5-1 44% |
| CHI | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% | 3-6-1 33% |
Recent meetings
The series
TEN 3–3 CHI
Series tied · 6 games since 2004 · CHI has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
CHI +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
69° · 10 mph
gusts 19 mph · wind lowers scoring
Rest
TEN1st game
CHI1st game
Even
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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