Sun, Sep 8, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 1 · at Buffalo Bills
Closing spread
BUF -6.5
✓ ARI W
Total
45.5
▲ Over · 62 pts
Model before kickoff
ARI 19–26 BUF
✓ BUF (72%) won
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBUF -7
CloseBUF -6.5
Total48 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBUF -7
0.5 → ARI
CloseBUF -6.5
0.5 pts toward Arizona Cardinals
Total
Open48
▼ 2.5
Close45.5
Down 2.5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BUF -7 · closed BUF -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward ARImodel BUF -7
model BUF -7
Opened 48 · closed 45.5 · moved 2.5 downmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 4.5–8.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 51% (47 games)ⓘ
Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBUF -7
CloseBUF -6.5
Total48 → 45.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BUF as a 6.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 6 went over the total.
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This game: BUF won 34–28; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 62 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.
Favorite won
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 65%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 44%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 47%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 6.4; 51.6 points a game (usually 45.8). When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  LAC vs  JAX2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6.5 | 10–38 | L | O45.5 |
| Loose |  PHI vs JAX2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6 | 29–21 | W | O44 |
| Loose | BUF vs  WSH2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-7 | 43–21 | W | O45.5 |
| Loose |  BAL vs  CLE2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 23–20 | L | U46.5 |
| Loose | BAL vs  CIN2021 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6 | 17–41 | L | O46 |
| Loose |  GB vs  PIT2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-6 | 27–17 | W | U45 |
| Loose |  TEN vs  NYG2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-6 | 20–21 | L | U44 |
| Loose | CIN vs PIT 2022 · Week 1 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-7 | 20–23 | L | U44 |
| Loose | CIN vs  ATL2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar team ratings & situation |
-6 | 35–17 | W | O48 |
| Loose | PHI vs GB 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings |
-6.5 | 40–33 | W | O46 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Arizona Cardinals ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved down 2.5
48 → 45.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Arizona Cardinals on a cross-country trip
Arizona Cardinals cross 3 time zones (1,913 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Wind 17 mph
Outdoor NFL games with 17 mph wind at kickoff have stayed under the total more often than the market allows for. · Backtest 2023–26: 57-46 (55%)
Small sample warning
Arizona Cardinals have 0 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 47 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 15% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 ARI | 3-7 30% | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% |
| BUF | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
ARI 2–5 BUF
BUF leads · 7 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BUF +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
58° · 17 mph
gusts 38 mph · 0.012 in rain · wind lowers scoring
Rest
ARI1st game
BUF1st game
Even
Travel
ARI 1,913 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
NE @ 
MIA
DEN @ 
SEA
LAR @ 
DET
NYJ @ 
SF
KC
CHI
HOU @ 
IND