Bills @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Thu, Sep 12, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Miami Dolphins · Division game

Weather at kickoff81°F1 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

1-0 · Power #4

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

1-0 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ BUF W

Total

49.5

▼ Under · 41 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 24–27 MIA

✗ MIA (58%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1

CloseMIA -2.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -1

1.5 → MIA

CloseMIA -2.5

1.5 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open50.5

▼ 1

Close49.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -1 · closed MIA -2.5 · moved 1.5 toward MIAmodel Pick’em

model Pick’em

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 72%, covered 58% (72 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -1

CloseMIA -2.5

Total50.5 → 49.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 31–10 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 41 points stayed under 49.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 44%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 2.9; 53.7 points a game (usually 43.8). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LAC vs CLE 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	47–42	W	O47
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	24–27	L	O47
Loose	LAR vs ARI 2021 · Postseason · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3.5	34–11	W	U48.5
Loose	BAL vs LAC 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-3	34–6	W	U51
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3	19–17	L	U47.5
Loose	LAC vs LV 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-3	28–14	W	U51.5
Loose	SF vs SEA 2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	21–28	L	U52
Loose	CIN vs MIA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-4	27–15	W	U49
Loose	TB vs KC 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-2	31–41	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF L	0-1	0%	—	—
MIA L	0-1	0%	0-1	0-1

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; MIA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF O	1-0	100%	1-0
MIA U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 9 in the 4th quarter and got 0. 51% of games with totals 46.5–52.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
MIA	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

BUF 35–20 MIA BUF leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIA has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	Buffalo Bills 21 @ Miami Dolphins 14	BUF -2.5	BUF W
Oct 1 2023	Miami Dolphins 20 @ Buffalo Bills 48	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.3 →+2.3–#4

MIA+1.5 →+1.9▲ 0.4#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

BUF

Longer bar = better

MIA

Offense

◀ BUF better

#16

Defense

MIA better ▶

#12

0.0 #21

Turnovers

MIA better ▶

+1.0 #10

58 plays #21

Pace

MIA faster ▶

65 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	34.0 #4	17.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.07 #9	5.34 #17	BUF
EPA / play	+0.22 #2	−0.15 #10	BUF
Success rate	58% #1	40% #13	BUF

When MIA has the ball

Even matchup

	MIA off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #20	28.0 #24	Even
Yards / play	6.15 #5	4.50 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #16	+0.06 #21	MIA
Success rate	40% #21	38% #9	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.