49ers @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2024)

Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

1-0 · Power #9

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

1-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -3.5

✓ MIN W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

SF 26–22 MIN

✗ SF (63%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -5.5

2 → MIN

CloseSF -3.5

2 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -5.5 · closed SF -3.5 · moved 2 toward MINmodel SF -4.5

model SF -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–5.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 48% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like SF as a 3.5-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 23–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 1 similar games. 40 points stayed under 46.5, as in 1 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 43%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 3; 28 points a game (usually 43.6). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	SF @ PHI 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	17–11	W	U49

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF W	1-0	100%	—	1-0
MIN W	1-0	100%	—	1-0

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF O	1-0	100%	1-0
MIN U	0-1	0%	1-0

Stayed under: it needed 20 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 48% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	7-3 70%	4-6 40%	6-3-1 67%
MIN	4-6 40%	4-4-2 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

SF 4–8 MIN MIN leads · 12 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 23 2023	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Minnesota Vikings 22	SF -6.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+3.2 →+3.8▲ 0.6#1

MIN−0.1 →+1.1▲ 1.2#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

Longer bar = better

MIN

#10

Offense

Even

#16

Defense

MIN better ▶

+2.0 #4

Turnovers

◀ SF better

0.0 #14

70 plays #6

Pace

◀ SF faster

51 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	SF off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.0 #6	6.0 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.73 #11	3.53 #5	MIN
EPA / play	+0.10 #10	−0.36 #2	MIN
Success rate	45% #11	31% #4	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: MIN offense

	MIN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #9	19.0 #10	Even
Yards / play	6.12 #5	5.43 #18	MIN
EPA / play	+0.16 #6	−0.05 #15	MIN
Success rate	48% #6	44% #19	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.