Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Dallas Cowboys
Closing spread
DAL -6.5
✓ NO W
Total
47.5
▲ Over · 63 pts
Model before kickoff
NO 22–28 DAL
✗ DAL (72%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDAL -6.5
CloseDAL -6.5
Total44.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenDAL -6.5
no move
CloseDAL -6.5
No change since the open
Total
Open44.5
▲ 3
Close47.5
Up 3 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened DAL -6.5 · unchangedmodel DAL -5
model DAL -5
Opened 44.5 · closed 47.5 · moved 3 upmodel 49.5
model 49.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 53% (40 games)ⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenDAL -6.5
CloseDAL -6.5
Total44.5 → 47.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for 
DAL as a 6.5-point home favorite against NO. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Total moved up 3
44.5 → 47.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Small sample warning
New Orleans Saints has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q2. Of 39 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 NO | 6-4 60% | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% |
| DAL | 7-3 70% | 5-5 50% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
NO 10–4 DAL
NO leads · 14 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
NO+0.5 →+1.9▲ 1.4#6
DAL+2.5 →+3.5▲ 1.0#2
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
NOLonger bar = better
DAL#5
Offense
◀ NO better#19
#3
Defense
Even#4
+2.0 #3
Turnovers
◀ NO better+2.0 #8
62 plays #12
Pace
◀ NO faster60 plays #18
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When NO has the ball| NO off | DAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 47.0 #1 | 17.0 #8 | NO |
| Yards / play | 6.11 #6 | 3.29 #2 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.21 #4 | −0.27 #6 | Even |
| Success rate | 47% #9 | 26% #1 | DAL |
When DAL has the ball| DAL off | NO def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 33.0 #4 | 10.0 #2 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.42 #25 | 3.51 #4 | NO |
| EPA / play | −0.11 #21 | −0.49 #1 | NO |
| Success rate | 36% #27 | 29% #3 | NO |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
DAL +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
NO7d
DAL7d
Even
Tempo
Average 122 plays
slowavg 120fast
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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IND @ 
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NYJ @ 
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SF @ 
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SEA @ 
NE
CLE @ 
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