Ravens @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Dallas Cowboys

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

0-2 · Power #1

▲ winner

Final

Dallas Cowboys

1-1 · Power #22

final

Closing spread

BAL -1.5

✓ BAL W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 26–25 DAL

✓ BAL (55%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseBAL -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPick’em

1.5 → BAL

CloseBAL -1.5

1.5 pts toward Baltimore Ravens

Total

Open48.5

▼ 1

Close47.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened Pick’em · closed BAL -1.5 · moved 1.5 toward BALmodel DAL -0.5

model DAL -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–3.5 since 2023: won 61%, covered 48% (51 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPick’em

CloseBAL -1.5

Total48.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at DAL, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 28–25; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 56%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Went over

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 2.4; 46.9 points a game (usually 43). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	LAC @ ARI 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	25–24	L	P49
Loose	LAC @ LV 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	20–27	L	U49.5
Loose	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3	21–20	L	U47.5
Loose	NO @ IND 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2	38–27	W	O44
Loose	LV @ NO 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation	-2	0–24	L	U48.5
Loose	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Loose	IND @ CAR 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	27–13	W	U45
Loose	LAC @ LV 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-3	32–35	L	O49.5
Loose	LAR @ ARI 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	37–14	W	O45
Loose	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation	-1	20–23	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LL	0-2	0%	0-1	0-1
DAL WL	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: BAL away, as favorite; DAL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OO	2-0	100%	0-2
DAL OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Went over in Q4. Of 42 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	5-4-1 56%
DAL	6-4 60%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 7–1 DAL BAL leads · 8 games since 2000 · BAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+3.1 →+2.9▼ 0.2#4

DAL+2.5 →+1.9▼ 0.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

BAL

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ BAL better

#20

#22

Defense

Even

#20

0.0 #18

Turnovers

DAL better ▶

+0.5 #12

69 plays #5

Pace

◀ BAL faster

63 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #15	30.5 #30	BAL
Yards / play	6.09 #6	5.25 #16	BAL
EPA / play	+0.04 #11	+0.04 #24	BAL
Success rate	50% #3	40% #10	BAL

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	26.5 #28	DAL
Yards / play	4.90 #23	5.57 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.14 #26	0.00 #19	BAL
Success rate	37% #25	43% #18	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 20 teams

BAL scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	5.0	4.5	9.5	3.5	8.5	12.0
DAL allowed	8.5	10.5	19.0	6.5	5.0	11.5

DAL scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0	13.0	18.0	6.5	1.5	8.0
BAL allowed	3.5	6.0	9.5	7.0	10.0	17.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.