Sun, Sep 15, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Baltimore Ravens
Closing spread
BAL -8.5
✓ LV W
Total
42.5
▲ Over · 49 pts
Model before kickoff
LV 18–27 BAL
✗ BAL (78%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -7.5
CloseBAL -8.5
Total44 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenBAL -7.5
1 → BAL
CloseBAL -8.5
1 pt toward Baltimore Ravens
Total
Open44
▼ 1.5
Close42.5
Down 1.5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened BAL -7.5 · closed BAL -8.5 · moved 1 toward BALmodel BAL -7
model BAL -7
Opened 44 · closed 42.5 · moved 1.5 downmodel 45.5
model 45.5
Openline modelKickoff
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenBAL -7.5
CloseBAL -8.5
Total44 → 42.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like 
BAL as an 8.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.
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This game: LV won 26–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 42.5, as in 4 of 10.
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 79%
Favorite covered
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 53%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 8.5 against an average line of 7.9; 44.9 points a game (usually 47.3). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loose |  LAR vs  CAR2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation |
-10 | 24–10 | W | U40.5 |
| Loose |  PIT vs  CHI2021 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & rest |
-7 | 29–27 | L | O40 |
| Loose |  CLE vs CHI2021 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation |
-7.5 | 26–6 | W | U44.5 |
| Loose |  MIA vs PIT2022 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & season form |
-7 | 16–10 | L | U44 |
| Loose |  SEA vs  DET2021 · Week 17 · loose |
-9 | 51–29 | W | O41.5 |
| Loose |  GB vs PIT2021 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & team ratings |
-6 | 27–17 | W | U45 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar season form |
-7.5 | 19–31 | L | O39 |
| Loose | GB vs LAR 2022 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form |
-7.5 | 24–12 | W | U40 |
| Loose | MIA vs  NYJ2021 · Week 15 · loose · similar season form |
-10 | 31–24 | L | O42 |
| Loose |  ATL vs DET2021 · Week 16 · loose |
-7.5 | 20–16 | L | U42.5 |
WSH
NYGHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Mixed signals on the spread
Slight Under trend Miss
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Baltimore Ravens
1 pt (BAL -7.5 → BAL -8.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 1.5
44 → 42.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Las Vegas Raiders on a cross-country trip
Las Vegas Raiders cross 3 time zones (2,104 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Las Vegas Raiders has 1 game with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 59 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
 LV | 5-5 50% | 7-2-1 78% | 4-6 40% |
| BAL | 7-3 70% | 6-4 60% | 5-4-1 56% |
Recent meetings
The series
LV 5–7 BAL
BAL leads · 12 games since 2000 · LV has won the last 2 meetings
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
LV−0.8 →−1.5▼ 0.7#25
BAL+3.1 →+3.2▲ 0.1#3
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1
LVLonger bar = better
BAL#27
Offense
BAL better ▶#9
#15
Defense
◀ LV better#26
−3.0 #32
Turnovers
BAL better ▶0.0 #18
59 plays #19
Pace
BAL faster ▶74 plays #2
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When LV has the ball| LV off | BAL def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 10.0 #31 | 27.0 #22 | BAL |
| Yards / play | 5.02 #20 | 7.06 #31 | LV |
| EPA / play | −0.33 #29 | +0.21 #30 | Even |
| Success rate | 32% #28 | 45% #21 | BAL |
When BAL has the ball| BAL off | LV def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 20.0 #18 | 22.0 #17 | Even |
| Yards / play | 6.11 #7 | 5.85 #22 | BAL |
| EPA / play | +0.08 #11 | −0.09 #13 | Even |
| Success rate | 54% #1 | 37% #7 | BAL |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
BAL +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
78° · 8 mph
gusts 19 mph · at kickoff
Rest
LV7d
BAL10d
BAL +3 days
Tempo
Fast 133 plays
slowavg 120fast
Travel
LV 2,104 mi
3 time zones
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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