Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Las Vegas Raiders
Closing spread
LV -5.5
✓ CAR W
Total
40.5
▲ Over · 58 pts
Model before kickoff
CAR 19–24 LV
✗ LV (69%) lost
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLV -7
CloseLV -5.5
Total38.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLV -7
1.5 → CAR
CloseLV -5.5
1.5 pts toward Carolina Panthers
Total
Open38.5
▲ 2
Close40.5
Up 2 since the open
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LV -7 · closed LV -5.5 · moved 1.5 toward CARmodel LV -6.5
model LV -6.5
Opened 38.5 · closed 40.5 · moved 2 upmodel 42.5
model 42.5
Openline modelKickoff
Line context
Home favorites of 3.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 49% (84 games)ⓘ
Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ
Closing line · ESPN BET
SourceESPN BET closing line
OpenLV -7
CloseLV -5.5
Total38.5 → 40.5
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
No recent game is a close match for
LV as a 5.5-point home favorite against CAR. Try “Overall” or remove a filter under Customize.
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History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Carolina Panthers ATS trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Over trend Hit
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Carolina Panthers
1.5 pts (LV -7 → LV -5.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved up 2
38.5 → 40.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Carolina Panthers on a cross-country trip
Carolina Panthers cross 3 time zones (1,918 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)
Small sample warning
Carolina Panthers have 2 games with a line this season; trends this early are mostly noise.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
Went over in Q4. Of 55 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1-9 10% | 3-7 30% | 3-7 30% | |
| 5-5 50% | 7-2-1 78% | 5-5 50% |
Recent meetings
The series
CAR 3–4 LV
LV leads · 7 games since 2000 · CAR has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
CAR−2.5 →−5.2▼ 2.7#32
LV−0.8 →−1.2▼ 0.4#22
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2
Longer bar = better
#32
Offense
LV better ▶#25
#29
Defense
LV better ▶#19
−0.5 #21
Turnovers
◀ CAR better−1.5 #30
51 plays #31
Pace
LV faster ▶60 plays #18
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| CAR off | LV def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 6.5 #32 | 22.5 #22 | LV |
| Yards / play | 3.49 #31 | 5.97 #27 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.49 #32 | −0.05 #13 | LV |
| Success rate | 27% #32 | 41% #14 | LV |
| LV off | CAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 18.0 #20 | 36.5 #32 | LV |
| Yards / play | 4.67 #24 | 5.73 #25 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.25 #29 | +0.16 #29 | Even |
| Success rate | 36% #26 | 50% #29 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 16 teams
CAR scoring against the LV defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.0 | 0.0 | 5.0 | |
3.0 | 4.5 | 7.5 | 5.0 | 10.0 | 15.0 |
LV scoring against the CAR defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.5 | 3.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 8.0 | 11.5 | |
11.5 | 13.5 | 25.0 | 5.0 | 6.5 | 11.5 |
Game conditions
At kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Indoors
Dome or closed roof
Rest
CAR7d
LV7d
Even
Tempo
Slow 110 plays
slowavg 121fast
Travel
CAR 1,918 mi
3 time zones
Quarterback
CAR backup QB started
Not on the final injury report
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

