Chiefs @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

2-0 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

1-1 · Power #20

final

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ KC W

Total

46.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 25–21 ATL

✓ KC (62%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -5

CloseKC -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5

1.5 → ATL

CloseKC -3.5

1.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open46.5

no move

Close46.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 1.5 toward ATLmodel KC -2.5

model KC -2.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 50% (45 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenKC -5

CloseKC -3.5

Total46.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 2 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 22–17; the favorite covered, as in 3 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 46.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 42%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.8 against an average line of 3.6; 41.2 points a game (usually 43.5). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	23–30	L	O45
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-4	19–20	L	U44
Loose	PHI @ NYG 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	7–13	L	U45
Loose	MIN @ MIA 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3.5	24–16	W	U45
Loose	MIA @ CHI 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	35–32	L	O46
Loose	CIN @ DET 2021 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	34–11	W	U46.5
Loose	LAC @ IND 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4.5	20–3	W	U44.5
Loose	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	20–23	L	U44
Loose	CIN @ CLE 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form & rest	-3	13–32	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1
ATL LW	1-1	50%	0-1	1-0

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC OO	2-0	100%	2-0
ATL UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 11 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 48% of games with totals 43.5–49.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	9-1 90%	7-2-1 78%	4-5-1 44%
ATL	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 4–3 ATL KC leads · 7 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+2.2 →+1.7▼ 0.5#7

ATL−0.8 →−1.2▼ 0.4#23

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ KC better

#18

#27

Defense

ATL better ▶

#17

−1.0 #28

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #29

55 plays #27

Pace

Even

54 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	26.5 #5	19.5 #14	KC
Yards / play	5.86 #9	4.74 #11	Even
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.01 #20	KC
Success rate	46% #9	43% #21	KC

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	16.0 #27	22.5 #22	KC
Yards / play	5.66 #12	5.72 #26	ATL
EPA / play	−0.08 #20	+0.06 #28	ATL
Success rate	45% #13	53% #32	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 26 teams

KC scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	5.0	6.5	11.5	7.0	8.0	15.0
ATL allowed	1.5	6.5	8.0	4.5	7.0	11.5

ATL scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	1.5	6.5	8.0	4.5	3.5	8.0
KC allowed	5.0	8.0	13.0	3.0	6.5	9.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.