Patriots @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Thu, Sep 19, 2024, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New York Jets · Division game

Weather at kickoff75°F7 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-1 · Power #30

final

Final

New York Jets

1-1 · Power #23

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -6.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

39.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 18–24 NYJ

✓ NYJ (71%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -7

CloseNYJ -6.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -7

0.5 → NE

CloseNYJ -6.5

0.5 pts toward New England Patriots

Total

Open40.5

▼ 1

Close39.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -7 · closed NYJ -6.5 · moved 0.5 toward NEmodel NYJ -2

model NYJ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 47% (45 games)ⓘ

Moved off 7Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenNYJ -7

CloseNYJ -6.5

Total40.5 → 39.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 6.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 24–3; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 27 points stayed under 39.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 6.1; 41.5 points a game (usually 45.8). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	CLE vs CIN 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form	-6.5	21–16	L	U38
Loose	CLE vs PIT 2022 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4.5	29–17	W	O38
Loose	LAR vs DAL 2022 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-5	10–22	L	U41.5
Loose	DEN vs LAC 2022 · Week 18 · loose	-6.5	31–28	L	O39
Loose	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · loose	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form	-7	31–14	W	O37
Loose	NO vs CAR 2021 · Week 17 · loose	-7	18–10	W	U37
Loose	ATL vs MIN 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form	-4.5	28–31	L	O37.5
Loose	MIA vs NYG 2021 · Week 13 · loose	-6.5	20–9	W	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WW	2-0	100%	1-0	2-0
NYJ LW	1-1	50%	—	1-0

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UO	1-1	50%	1-1
NYJ OU	1-1	50%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 16 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 51% of games with totals 36.5–42.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
NYJ	4-6 40%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

NE 43–14 NYJ NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 7 2023	New York Jets 17 @ New England Patriots 3	NE -2.5	NYJ W
Sep 24 2023	New England Patriots 15 @ New York Jets 10	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−1.4▲ 0.4#26

NYJ−1.2 →−1.2–#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#19

Offense

Even

#17

#13

Defense

◀ NE better

#20

+1.0 #7

Turnovers

◀ NE better

0.0 #19

65 plays #8

Pace

◀ NE faster

53 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	18.0 #21	24.5 #26	NE
Yards / play	4.62 #25	5.39 #18	NYJ
EPA / play	+0.03 #11	+0.01 #22	NE
Success rate	44% #17	41% #14	Even

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.5 #15	16.5 #5	NE
Yards / play	5.06 #20	5.11 #14	NE
EPA / play	0.00 #16	−0.06 #12	Even
Success rate	43% #18	45% #21	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 0 teams

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.5	8.0	11.5	1.5	5.0	6.5
NYJ allowed	5.0	8.0	13.0	8.5	3.0	11.5

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	3.5	3.5	7.0	8.0	6.5	14.5
NE allowed	3.5	5.0	8.5	3.5	3.0	6.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.