Eagles @ Saints: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2024)

Sun, Sep 22, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at New Orleans Saints

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Philadelphia Eagles

1-1 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

New Orleans Saints

2-0 · Power #25

final

Closing spread

NO -2.5

✓ PHI W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 27 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 25–27 NO

✗ NO (59%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

CloseNO -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Loading the recap…

Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -2.5

5 → NO

CloseNO -2.5

5 pts toward New Orleans Saints

Total

Open48.5

no move

Close48.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -2.5 · closed NO -2.5 · moved 5 toward NOmodel NO -4

model NO -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (76 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

CloseNO -2.5

Total48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 1 games most like NO as a 2.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

This game: PHI won 15–12 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 1 similar games. 27 points stayed under 48.5, as in 0 of 1.

Favorite won

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

1 of 1100%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 1 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 4; 67 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›

All 1 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	ARI vs MIN 2021 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-4	34–33	L	O50.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WL	1-1	50%	—	—
NO WW	2-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OU	1-1	50%	1-1
NO OO	2-0	100%	2-0

Stayed under: it needed 46 in the 4th quarter and got 24. 46% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	5-5 50%
NO	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

PHI 7–8 NO NO leads · 15 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →−0.2▼ 0.1#18

NO+0.5 →+3.3▲ 2.8#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

PHI

Longer bar = better

Offense

NO better ▶

#28

Defense

NO better ▶

−1.5 #31

Turnovers

NO better ▶

+1.5 #3

71 plays #2

Pace

◀ PHI faster

59 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: NO defense

	PHI off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	27.5 #5	14.5 #4	Even
Yards / play	5.46 #16	4.51 #4	NO
EPA / play	+0.09 #7	−0.32 #2	NO
Success rate	47% #8	34% #2	NO

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	45.5 #1	25.5 #27	NO
Yards / play	6.87 #1	6.89 #31	NO
EPA / play	+0.32 #1	+0.17 #30	NO
Success rate	52% #1	45% #22	NO

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

PHI scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0	12.0	12.0	8.5	7.0	15.5
NO allowed	1.5	8.0	9.5	5.0	0.0	5.0

NO scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	15.5	17.0	32.5	6.5	6.5	13.0
PHI allowed	3.0	9.5	12.5	8.0	5.0	13.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.