Eagles @ Buccaneers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

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Philadelphia Eagles

2-1 · Power #2

final

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2-1 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

PHI -0.5

✓ TB W

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 49 pts

Model before kickoff

PHI 24–23 TB

✗ PHI (52%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -0.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenPHI -2.5

2 → TB

ClosePHI -0.5

2 pts toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Total

Open46.5

▼ 3

Close43.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened PHI -2.5 · closed PHI -0.5 · moved 2 toward TBmodel PHI -1

model PHI -1

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenPHI -2.5

ClosePHI -0.5

Total46.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 0.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: TB won 33–16 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 2 of the 10 similar games. 49 points went over 43.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 52%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 40%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 1.7; 44.6 points a game (usually 42.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Loose	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-1	31–28	W	O42
Loose	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Loose	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	27–6	W	U42
Loose	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Loose	CIN @ NO 2022 · Week 6 · loose · similar rest & season form	-1	30–26	W	O43
Loose	NO @ WSH 2021 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	33–22	W	O43.5
Loose	CLE @ ATL 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-1	20–23	L	U48.5
Loose	MIN @ WSH 2022 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	20–17	P	U43.5
Loose	NE @ NYJ 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-1.5	22–17	W	U40

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1
TB WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: PHI away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
TB OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q3. Of 58 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	4-6 40%
TB	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PHI 9–10 TB TB leads · 19 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 15 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 9 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 32	PHI -3	TB W
Sep 25 2023	Philadelphia Eagles 25 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI−0.1 →+1.0▲ 1.1#12

TB+0.1 →−1.0▼ 1.1#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

PHI

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

◀ PHI better

#17

#20

Defense

Even

#21

−1.3 #31

Turnovers

TB better ▶

0.0 #16

70 plays #2

Pace

◀ PHI faster

55 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PHI offense

	PHI off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	23.3 #12	20.7 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #10	5.49 #21	PHI
EPA / play	+0.07 #11	+0.03 #22	PHI
Success rate	46% #10	47% #24	PHI

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #15	21.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.07 #20	5.95 #28	TB
EPA / play	−0.06 #20	+0.05 #25	TB
Success rate	45% #11	40% #10	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.0 #32	8.0 #7	8.0 #24	5.7 #8	9.7 #3	15.3 #1
TB allowed	5.7 #22	5.3 #10	11.0 #19	5.7 #21	4.0 #13	9.7 #16

TB scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	4.0 #17	8.0 #7	12.0 #11	4.7 #14	4.7 #22	9.3 #17
PHI allowed	3.0 #7	6.3 #18	9.3 #11	5.3 #19	6.3 #23	11.7 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.