Commanders @ Cardinals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Arizona Cardinals

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

2-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Arizona Cardinals

1-2 · Power #17

final

Closing spread

ARI -3.5

✓ WSH W

Total

48.5

▲ Over · 56 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 24–27 ARI

✗ ARI (62%) lost

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -5.5

CloseARI -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenARI -5.5

2 → WSH

CloseARI -3.5

2 pts toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open49.5

▼ 1

Close48.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened ARI -5.5 · closed ARI -3.5 · moved 2 toward WSHmodel ARI -2

model ARI -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 57% (85 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenARI -5.5

CloseARI -3.5

Total49.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ARI as a 3.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 42–14 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 56 points went over 48.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 42%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.9; 55.9 points a game (usually 43.3). When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs LAC 2021 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	22–41	L	O50.5
Loose	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3	22–17	W	U47
Loose	HOU vs CHI 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & rest	-6.5	19–13	L	U45.5
Loose	SF vs MIN 2021 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-4	34–26	W	O49.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2021 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	31–34	L	O51
Loose	SEA vs MIA 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & spread	-4.5	24–3	W	U41.5
Loose	MIA vs GB 2022 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	20–26	L	U49.5
Loose	SEA vs LV 2022 · Week 12 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-4	34–40	L	O48
Loose	DET vs SEA 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & rest	-3.5	45–48	L	O48.5
Loose	MIN vs ARI 2022 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & team ratings	-4	34–26	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWW	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1
ARI WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-0

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; ARI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
ARI OOU	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 37 earlier overs in games with totals 45.5–51.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%
ARI	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 14–4 ARI WSH leads · 18 games since 1999 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ Washington Commanders 20	WSH -6	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−3.1 →−3.1–#31

ARI−1.7 →−0.3▲ 1.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

WSH

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

◀ WSH better

#31

Defense

ARI better ▶

#22

+0.3 #8

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

0.0 #17

61 plays #15

Pace

◀ WSH faster

58 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	26.3 #5	21.3 #19	WSH
Yards / play	5.93 #8	5.45 #19	WSH
EPA / play	+0.26 #2	+0.01 #17	WSH
Success rate	51% #4	53% #32	WSH

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #4	29.3 #30	ARI
Yards / play	5.92 #9	6.58 #31	ARI
EPA / play	+0.07 #10	+0.25 #32	ARI
Success rate	45% #13	51% #30	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	3.3 #23	9.0 #3	12.3 #11	6.7 #5	7.3 #6	14.0 #2
ARI allowed	2.3 #2	8.7 #27	11.0 #17	7.0 #30	3.3 #9	10.3 #19

ARI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	9.3 #3	7.7 #12	17.0 #4	3.3 #22	7.0 #9	10.3 #16
WSH allowed	6.3 #26	7.3 #19	13.7 #25	4.7 #13	11.0 #30	15.7 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.