Patriots @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2024)

Sun, Sep 29, 2024, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff75°F5 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

New England Patriots

1-2 · Power #30

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

1-2 · Power #9

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -10.5

✓ SF W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 43 pts

Model before kickoff

NE 17–28 SF

✓ SF (83%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -10.5

CloseSF -10.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -10.5

no move

CloseSF -10.5

No change since the open

Total

Open40.5

▲ 1

Close41.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -10.5 · unchangedmodel SF -9

model SF -9

Openline modelKickoff

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenSF -10.5

CloseSF -10.5

Total40.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 10.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 30–13; the favorite covered, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 43 points went over 41.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 54%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9 against an average line of 9.6; 46 points a game (usually 47.3). Of the 2 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	PHI vs NYG 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-10.5	34–10	W	O40.5
Loose	GB vs NE 2022 · Week 4 · loose · similar situation & season form	-9.5	27–24	L	O40
Loose	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Loose	LAC vs NYG 2021 · Week 14 · loose · similar season form & team ratings	-9	37–21	W	O43.5
Loose	BAL vs LV 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O42.5
Loose	KC vs PIT 2021 · Week 16 · loose · similar team ratings & season form	-10.5	36–10	W	O44.5
Loose	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar season form & situation	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Loose	BAL vs DEN 2022 · Week 13 · loose · similar season form	-9	10–9	L	U40.5
Loose	CIN vs WSH 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & rest	-7.5	33–38	L	O46.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2021 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form	-11	41–17	W	O43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1
SF WLL	1-2	33%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOU	1-2	33%	1-2
SF OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	5-5 50%
SF	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	6-3-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

NE 3–3 SF Series tied · 6 games since 2004 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE−1.8 →−2.9▼ 1.1#29

SF+3.2 →+3.9▲ 0.7#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

#26

Offense

SF better ▶

#20

Defense

Even

#23

+0.3 #10

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #7

59 plays #19

Pace

SF faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #31	23.0 #21	SF
Yards / play	4.15 #30	6.11 #30	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #23	+0.01 #18	SF
Success rate	41% #18	46% #23	NE

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #8	19.0 #11	Even
Yards / play	6.05 #5	5.34 #17	SF
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.06 #26	SF
Success rate	47% #9	49% #27	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	2.3 #28	6.3 #18	8.7 #22	1.0 #32	3.3 #26	4.3 #30
SF allowed	3.3 #10	5.7 #14	9.0 #8	6.7 #29	7.3 #24	14.0 #27

SF scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.7 #10	6.7 #15	12.3 #11	5.7 #10	6.3 #12	12.0 #10
NE allowed	4.7 #16	5.7 #14	10.3 #15	4.7 #13	3.0 #5	7.7 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.