Dolphins @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2024)

Sun, Oct 6, 2024, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F2 mphgusts 11DryWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

1-3 · Power #18

▲ winner

Final

New England Patriots

1-3 · Power #30

final

Closing spread

MIA -2.5

✓ MIA W

Total

36.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 23–20 NE

✓ MIA (58%) won

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -0.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIA -0.5

2 → MIA

CloseMIA -2.5

2 pts toward Miami Dolphins

Total

Open36.5

no move

Close36.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIA -0.5 · closed MIA -2.5 · moved 2 toward MIAmodel MIA -1

model MIA -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 58%, covered 46% (53 games)ⓘ

Closing line · ESPN BET

SourceESPN BET closing line

OpenMIA -0.5

CloseMIA -2.5

Total36.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like MIA as a 2.5-point road favorite at NE, the favorite won 1, covered 1, and 0 went over the total.

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This game: MIA won 15–10; the favorite covered, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 25 points stayed under 36.5, as in 3 of 3.

Favorite won

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

0 of 30%

Normal range · usually 44%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 1.3 against an average line of 3.2; 32.7 points a game (usually 43.7). When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CLE @ LV 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	16–20	L	U38.5
Loose	NYJ @ TEN 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–17	W	U42.5
Loose	WSH @ NYG 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	7–14	L	U36.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2021 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLL	0-4	0%	0-1	0-3
NE WWLL	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2

Venue/role: MIA away, as favorite; NE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UUUO	1-3	25%	1-3
NE UOUO	2-2	50%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 18 in the 4th quarter and got 6. 49% of games with totals 33.5–39.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	3-7 30%	2-8 20%	3-7 30%
NE	3-7 30%	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

MIA 25–29 NE NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Sep 17 2023	Miami Dolphins 24 @ New England Patriots 17	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA+1.5 →−1.3▼ 2.8#23

NE−1.8 →−3.5▼ 1.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

MIA

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

Even

#29

#18

Defense

◀ MIA better

#23

0.0 #20

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #19

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ MIA faster

60 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	11.3 #32	21.8 #16	NE
Yards / play	4.56 #27	5.79 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.27 #32	+0.08 #24	NE
Success rate	37% #30	47% #26	Even

When NE has the ball

Advantage: MIA defense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	13.0 #31	25.8 #26	MIA
Yards / play	3.98 #30	5.20 #13	MIA
EPA / play	−0.19 #30	−0.03 #19	MIA
Success rate	39% #25	40% #12	MIA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.5 #25	3.3 #29	5.8 #30	2.5 #26	3.0 #27	5.5 #30
NE allowed	5.0 #17	7.8 #22	12.8 #21	5.3 #18	3.0 #3	8.3 #8

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	1.8 #28	5.5 #20	7.3 #28	2.5 #26	3.3 #26	5.8 #29
MIA allowed	7.8 #29	9.0 #26	16.8 #29	4.3 #13	4.8 #12	9.0 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.